Thursday, February 7, 2013

Euro to let up some pressure?

I think so, again it's a matter of timing.

 This is a 15 mi chart of the SPY (green) vs the Euro, note the divergence i the Euro to the dwnside, more importantly for your tool box, note where SPY/market volatility picked up in relationship to where the Euro went negative.

Understand what that means, it's really about the $USD, it's stronger and causing resistance, the Euro isn't there to support the move and volatility is picking up as any little break in pressure allows the market to shoot up, a return to pressure tries to bring the market back down tward the arbitrage correlation. There are all kinds of assets that could cause this, but the $USD is one of the most fundamental.

 Here's the EUR/USD with the leading positive, it doesn't look huge here, but since the capture it is now just shy of the highs to the far left.

 The Euro (really the $USD, but they are so heavily correlated) is acting as an anchor on the SPY, if the tension lets up, the SPY/market likely snaps up in volatile, fast form.

 1 min SPY is negative, but has been mor like a consolidation than anything.

The 2 min could go positive here , it's not far gone at all, so watching the EUR/USD will be an early warning as to what the market does and when.

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