I think so, again it's a matter of timing.
This is a 15 mi chart of the SPY (green) vs the Euro, note the divergence i the Euro to the dwnside, more importantly for your tool box, note where SPY/market volatility picked up in relationship to where the Euro went negative.
Understand what that means, it's really about the $USD, it's stronger and causing resistance, the Euro isn't there to support the move and volatility is picking up as any little break in pressure allows the market to shoot up, a return to pressure tries to bring the market back down tward the arbitrage correlation. There are all kinds of assets that could cause this, but the $USD is one of the most fundamental.
Here's the EUR/USD with the leading positive, it doesn't look huge here, but since the capture it is now just shy of the highs to the far left.
The Euro (really the $USD, but they are so heavily correlated) is acting as an anchor on the SPY, if the tension lets up, the SPY/market likely snaps up in volatile, fast form.
1 min SPY is negative, but has been mor like a consolidation than anything.
The 2 min could go positive here , it's not far gone at all, so watching the EUR/USD will be an early warning as to what the market does and when.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment