Friday, February 1, 2013

QQQ Calls and Market Update

Well yesterday's weekly QQQ call trade was speculative, but I felt it had a good chance of making some money and while not the 3 digit gains you hear about often with weekly options (no one likes to talk about how many times they lost on the same options), the gain was respectable, for some people it's a month's salary in 1 day.

 As mentioned, I left about half the position open, but a nearly 37% gain for an otherwise dull market in less than a day, is opportunity and that's the point I try to get across. while I thin you do very well when finding the trading style and risk tolerance that fits you best, I have traded so many different markets that I don't like to consider myself any particular type of trader, I like to consider myself an opportunist. The move in the Q's looked high probability and obvious, but not particularly profitable without leverage, so the weekly options were used and you know leverage is my least favorite vehicle, but it was the right one for the trade.

I think you are most successful when you can identify opportunities and not put yourself in a box, know what tool to use for what job and take what the market gives, not what you think it should.
 
 The very short term 2 min QQQ chart was leading positive yesterday, the reason for the trade and the short nature of it (using options that expire the next day).

 At 5 mins there isn't the same opportunity which tells me this is a shorter trade, which fits with my picture of near term volatility and chop.

 So far on the 1 min chart there's still a chance for more upside, but the momentum is not very strong.


 ES (S&P futures) so far are trading along the upper band of the VWAP, which is fine.


 However there were only a series of very small positive divergences pre-market on the 1 min chart, I'm not inspired that this is a lasting move/trade.

The 5 min chart which is what I'm really using for short term directionality was positive yesterday, that is quickly fading to look more negative like Wednesday.

Thus it's time to take at least partial profits, as the day goes on, if the momentum doesn't keep up, the options lose value.

No comments: