Friday, February 1, 2013

SPY Update

This is really a market update, but focussed more on the SPY. Remember, "Volatility is going to increase to the upside and downside"? I said it the last 2 days. Suddenly CNBC's "The market is worried about the GDP" from yesterday doesn't seem to fit the market today does it? Are emotions and analysis really that fickle?

Here are the notable SPY/ES charts.

 The same "Rounding " price and volume patterns are becoming apparent, but note the difference in volatility today, much more vertical than Tuesday, we should see that same increased volatility on the downside move and ever increasing until the reversal is solid. For a market that has had extremely low volatility and ATR, this is a definitive change in character.


 The 2 min chart isn't confirming at all, it did show some positive behavior at the same time as the QQQ long call yesterday, but that's gone now.

 The 3 min chart is starting to act like it did at the start of the Tuesday/Wednesday move this week, except it's actually in a weker starting position because of the damage done Tuesday/Wednesday.

 The 5 min chart shows that damage and no recovery from it, there is a small positive relative divergence within the larger leading negative from yesterday, no confirmation today.


 And of course the increased downside 3C leading divergence momentum has been one of the most notable changes recently on very long and important charts.

 ES 1 min is also starting to sour.

The 5 min chart which has worked fantastic for next day or near term moves that predicted the move down this week as well as the move up today, is turning worse and worse to the downside.





No comments: