First let me just throw out there the very real possibility of a larger base, rather than today's "U" shaped as we talked about this in last night's market wrap with regard to reversals being more of a process than an event, there's also the "W" shape which was mentioned last night and today many times; this would take a second day and look more like this.
Follow the green arrows to the right. If that type of base continued forward from here, as long as the 3C signals were growing in strength, I'd look for a break below the red trendline (a shakeout and a move to pull in new shorts) and I'd look to add to the speculative long in TQQQ/URTY because the larger base would have larger implications for a bounce. Wd don't have any evidence of that at this time, the closest thing to evidence would be simple market behavior.
As to why I decided to enter the TQQQ portion just a 20 minute or so ago, here's why (and this is more for those of you trying to learn 3C)...
The intraday negative divergence that halted upside momentum started to end and go positive, with overnight futures having the ability to change the outlook dramatically, I'd rather enter before the close on the start of this new signal even though it's not quite mature.
In ES, we see the same thing and this is a bit more mature than NASDAQ futures, but that's the reason.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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