Tuesday, March 12, 2013

GOOG Charts-Weekly Calls/ April Puts

Here are the charts and the set up for adding to or starting a new Put position in GOOG (The April $810 Puts are still an open position).

 The idea here is that we have two head fake areas that should turn out to be failed breakout levels, the major one is at the $775 area, the minor one is at the $800 area, although $800 is definitely a psychological level.

When a breakout fails, they typically reverse fast and hard, "From failed moves come fast moves" so the first thing we want to do is try to confirm the breakout is seeing distribution and not supported...


 The long term 2 hour chart shows a clean trend and it's a clear leading negative divergence above the $800 area.

 The closer 15 min chart shows the preparation to break above $775 with a positive divergence (accumulated at the white trendline) and negative divergences after the break out, suggesting the breakout/higher prices and demand, were used to sell in to, at the $800 area the divergence is clearly leading negative.

 The 10 min chart is zoomed out as far as it will go, but it really needs to be zoomed out a bit more and then you'd see 3C moving up in sync with GOOG from November where there was a small positive divergence and then going negative in to the new year-you can still see that, but if I could zoom out a bit more 3C would be moving a lot closer to price. *For those using 3C or really any cumulative indicator, this is completely normal as these are not oscillators and are not anchored to the price scale, the way cumulative indicators are used (Worden's Money Stream or Time Segmented Volume are the same as far as the scaling factor) is by comparing the price highs/lows/trend to the indicator highs/lows/trend at the same point in time, usually by using at least two relative points, they are typically highs, lows or the general trend. Oscillators differ as they are fixed and the value is important, although many people don't use oscillators with divergence analysis, they are actually more effective when used in that manner.


Here we have the intraday GOOG chart (1 min) with a positive divergence, the 2 and 3 min charts are positive as well, so I want to use the short term divergences to sell (or buy puts) in to price strength and use short term calls to ride that price strength. The idea would be to enter calls somewhere in the following area...



No comments: