Tuesday, March 19, 2013

GOOG Update

Since I've had several emails in a row this morning about GOOG as it is moving up as we hoped (for our longer term April Puts and equity short position) so we can add in to price strength and underlying weakness or so anyone interested can get better positioning with lower risk and higher probabilities on a new position.

 These are the price levels in which a failure below has the potential and even the probability of creating a "Failed move creates a fast move" so the $800-ish level and $775 are ultimately what I'd like to see break before April expiration and the equity short would be a longer term trend position so any upside in the near term as we have been looking for in GOOG, is a bit of a bonus.

 Not only did the trendline break, but the Trend Channel broke as well, the earlier January brush with the Channel was so close, it may have been on the line, but in my view it wasn't a solid close below the channel, the break on the TC is now $796.46. As far as the 10-day ATR, you see the last time price pulled an upside channel buster last year, it led to a sharp downside reversal, the ATR was up as it would be on a mini-capitulation move. As the trend started in the new year the ATR was rising as it should, but has since fallen off badly and again at an upside channel buster, one of the more effective signals using price.

 My DeMark inspired indicator (9-day) with a buy @ 2009 lows, sell at 2009 highs, 2012 highs and right now.

 Intraday GOOG looks pretty good, momentum, RSI, MACD and Stochastics are all moving in line.

 The intraday 3C chart is in line with price

 3 min chart showing a small positive at yesterday's closing dip.

 I think the 5 min positive divergence is clear here without any notations.

 As for the longer term short position, the 30 min chart is pretty clear

 The 60 min chart is VERY clear and this is how we define a leading negative divergence

 The 2-hour chart, again showing how to identify a leading negative divergence

And the 4-hour chart , the leading negative right now is the worst GOOG has seen in a long time.

All looks clear for GOOG, I'm not concerned about it and look forward to the possibility of a better or a good entry for anyone who is interested.


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