You never know how one strand of a spider's web will connect and then resonate with another creating something totally unexpected and it is always period like these where the fundamental data is not discounted and everyone learns of it at the same time (except headline running algos that get it a millionth of a second before you possibly could) that we are at the greatest risk for drastic unforeseeable events, although we already know which way the probabilities point.
Earlier today I was forwarded a Stratfor Article about the situation between Cyprus and the rick Russian Oligarchs that keep their money their in savings.
My response to the member who sent the Stratfor article, "Russia Condemns Cyprus' New Bank Tax" was exactly this,
"Yeah, saw that one coming, this could get interesting for Stratfor if Russia decides to finance Cyprus, they leave the Euro and Russia has a naval base in the Med."
Just moments ago, a step in that direction was taken.
From the WSJ:
The official said that Michalis Sarris, who is being accompanied by a delegation of businessmen, is going to propose a deal that includes imposing a 20% to 30% levy on Russian-held deposits in Cypriot banks, which could cost them billions of euros. In exchange, Russia will be given equity in Cyprus's future national gas company and some additional strategic benefits in the sector, while Russian investors would be given control of the board of directors at Cyprus's banks.
However, the deal looks like a long shot. Ahead of the visit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It's practically impossible to talk without knowing the details."
"The situation is very difficult--unprecedented--and we don't understand what's happening," he said. Mr. Putin hasn't spoken to his Cypriot counterpart, he added.
"We don't know about the visit [on Wednesday] because we have information that the [Cypriot] finance minister has offered his resignation. Since we don't know if Cyprus has a finance minister, we can't comment on proposals that he might make," he said.
Mr. Anastasiades hinted that the government is already working on a plan B. "We have our own plans," he said.
Russia as you already know most likely has sent something like 6 or 7 warships in to the Mediterranean including frigates and destroyers. The Russians already have a naval base in Syria, but if there's one thing the old guard in Russia including Putin are REALLY HOT over, it has been the West's (US and Europe's) bold incursions in to former Soviet strongholds, making many of them NATO members and even European Union members.
How much would it be worth for Russia to pay to have a naval base right off Europe's coast and flanking the left side of the Middle East, $10 billion? Russia already has the EU by the short hairs when it comes to Gazprom and whatever prices Russia wants to set for the EU, Gazprom already sells more Natural Gas and oil to Europe than they do to the entirety of Russia, the CIS and Baltic states combined, in fact twice as much! From my understanding, Russia is the main exporter of Energy to Europe, there have been several close calls in the past and the Ukraine felt the wrath of the Russians via Gazprom.
What would Putin give to see some of the old guard former glory and do what the west has been doing to Russia for over 20 years and set up shop right in Medditeranean waters?
Wait for it, I'd be willing to give odds on Anastasiades' plan "B", there's no love lost between Cyprus and Germany or the EU, this time the EU may have made a blunder that has far greater consequences than former ones.
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