Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Volatility Update- VIX, VXX, UVXY

I just wanted to remind you of what I said yesterday, when you have a set of confirmed signals in the volatility assets, you are typically going to find the exact opposite in the market averages to some degree and vice-versa; I'll give you an example below-although this is not a market update.

 First the daily VIX has a huge move in it, this is also a "Bullish Engulfing" Candle pair

 This is the VXX Short Term VIX Futures 1 min chart with an intraday negative divergence, this should cause at least a consolidation if not a pullback in the VXX and thus likely the opposite in the SPY.

 I check the same timeframe in UVXY (the leveraged version of VXX) for confirmation.

 VXX 2 min is in line so far so as of now, it's not a big divergence but looks more like intraday movement.

 UVXY is in line on the 2 min also.

 XIV is the opposite of VXX and UVXY so it should have a positive divergence which trades similar to the market, so we have confirmation here too.

 And the 1 min chart of the SPY, the same, so there's confirmation there as well, it looks like an intraday move higher or at least a consolidation.

 If the SPY 2 min were positive I'd say a bounce was more likely, but with the 1 min alone, a consolidation is more likely. The up to date 2 min chart is slightly more positive.


 VXX 5 min on a more important timeframe shows accumulation and an inline/trend confirmation signal at the green arrow.

 VXX 10 min has the same signal so we have migration and confirmation.

 The more important 15 min shows a larger accumulation period that the VXX is just breaking out of.

 The 30 min shows an even larger divergence area, the yellow hash mark is where 3C was yesterday.

 Here we have a 2 hour chart that is in line or trend confirmation on the way down, the it goes in to a large positive divergence/leading.

Here's a closer look, this is why I have been saying that it looks like someone has really been accumulating volatility for some time now and they would have been able to do it cheaply with a lot of available supply.

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