Tuesday, April 2, 2013

AAPL Update

AAPL is a difficult divergence to understand, there was no warning early on yesterday that it would make a move lower as it did which I believe to be part of a stop run for not only AAPL, but the entire NDX 100 or QQQ, but just as I showed the divergence last night and it's positive character which is difficult to understand on several timeframes, this morning AAPL is moving in line with those positive divergences I showed at the end of this post last night. This is why I was able to keep faith in the position from yesterday.

Here's a look as best as I can explain for now until we have more time under the bridge.

 AAPL's stop run yesterday afternoon, also new shorts would have entered and caught this morning with a loss as AAPL moved back up above the resistance area (red trendline), AAPL is now up +1.37 and the Q's +.75%.

 This 3 min chart does show 2 leading positive divergences, those are real, they are there, the underlying activity was there, it seems all institutional support was pulled so AAPL could hit stops, BUT this 3 min chart NEVER WENT NEGATIVE, it remained in line with price action.

 This 5 min chart shows a leading positive divergence and it did happen, when support was pulled as AAPL broke down and triggered stops, again, THIS 5 MIN CHART NEVER WENT TO A NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE, BUT REMAINED IN LINE.

 The faster 1, 2 and 3 min charts show accumulation picked up again once AAPL had taken out stops as you might imagine as prices were lower and supply was more plentiful for institutions to fill larger orders without driving price against their positions.

 This is one of those times that the divergences on the 3 and 5 min charts appear as an accrual on a longer chart such as this 10 min or...

 This 15 min which are more important timeframes. When you see positive divergences in a choppy manner you have to check the longer charts to see if those shorter term charts with choppy divergences (rather than a smooth continuous one) accrue on a longer term chart as they did  here.
 
The 1 min chart showing accumulation of the lows, this wasn't heavy enough to move past the 2 min chart because it was a shorter period, but it was there.

When AAPL is done and we have more time and the move under the bridge, it will be easier to see, but this is the concept of "accrual" which is one of the more difficult ones, but just think of it as institutional accumulation in spurts and the accumulated shares are put aside, the indicator may fall and another positive divergence will appear, more shares are put aside, that's an accrual of shares and it typically will show up on a longer term chart as it did on the 10 and 15 min in AAPL yesterday.

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