GOOG Update

Currently we have a longer term GOOG equity short, GOOG April (monthly) $810 Puts and GOOG weekly (this Friday) calls.

The calls are in the money, the Puts aren't that far off and should be fine. So you can probably tell by the positioning the analysis for GOOG expected a short term bounce and a longer term decline. Here's a full update.

 60 min chart, the yellow trendlines are head fake moves, the first below the first obvious support where  stops are bound to congregate as you can see by the volume spike they were hit, the second area is below support from mid-March, again stops were hit there, not as many. As price moved up on the failed breakdown (stop run) we see green volume pick up.

 On a daily chart here's a simpler view of the head fake move, which is something expected after many GOOG updates in MArch for both the long and short positions. Today's price action fulfills the head fake move or the failed break down which shorts will pick up on as a swing trade at minimum.

 Our longer term analysis using my custom DeMark inspired indicator (Can someone PLEASE come up with a name for this indicator?) shows the 2009 lows buy zone, 2010 sell at the highs, 2012 sell @ the highs (remember this is a 9-day chart, each bar= 9 days) and finally recent action is giving a sell signal as well.

 My cutom X-Over Screen to avoid false cross-over signals by using the typical price crossover, a custom indicator in the middle and RSI at the bottom, all 3 have to agree for a signal. We are VERY close to a short signal as the custom indicator in the middle is the only one that hasn't actually crossed under yet, but it's as close as can be without the X-over.

As for the call position, the 1 min intraday 3C chart is going negative in the area after a nice positive yesterday with the rest of the market on that double bottom move below support to hit the stops as discussed yesterday and last night.

The 2 min chart is still in line, but it's caught between a 1 and 3 min negative divergence intraday and you know how I don't want to stick around once momentum starts to fade.

Actually looking at GOOG right now, it looks like we got out at the perfect spot as momentum is fading.

The 5 min chart is leading positive, so half the position stayed open, but the expiration this Friday has me a bit nervous.

A closer look at the 5 min chart.

The 10 min is also leading positive

As well as the 15 min chart

And the 30 min is leading positive, this is the reason I left half the position open the 5, 10, 15 and 30 min all leading positive.

The longer term 60 min which is where the longer term probabilities are highest (thus the equity short) is leading negative

The Daily chart is also in a deep, long term leading negative divergence. The idea here was to play the short term bounce (initially I didn't want to, but then the charts improved) and ride it up and then add to the put position and the equity short if you like the trade, or if you already have a partial position started.