Wednesday, April 3, 2013

EUR/USD

Since we have so many people trading the EUR/USD off yesterday's signals (more FX trades than normal) here's an update (plus it's part of the market analysis as well).

 This is a 5 min chart of the EUR/USD, my feeling yesterday was that the pair would see short term upside, I had a lot of charts yesterday suggesting that would happen as it has, I didn't have any charts suggesting it would be a move that holds, so it's in line with market expectations. $1.29 is possible, the ECB was defending $1.30 for a while, I doubt they will defend that level again.

 The next resistance is coming up around $1.2878.

 This is the 1 min EUR/USD, unfortunately I can't get any signals beyond 1 min, I think because it trades in such small units (pips). It would seem there's at least a small positive divergence, perhaps it builds to a larger one.


 This is the single currency Euro and then USDX. Again 1 min has a small positive.

 5 min is in line, no divergence.

 15 min is leading negative which makes sense from our expectations.

 30 min is negative as well.

 USDX 5 min has a small relative positive, this is 5 min and this is not a strong divergence, it could just as easily fail.

 The 1 min is very volatile in USDX, I'm not sure what to make of it.

 The 30 min is clear, positive which suggests the EUR/USD's move to the upside is short term and the longer move will likely stay within the downtrend in the pair above.

USDX 60 min positive as well, just reinforces that view, bottom line I think it can make it to the next resistance level, but as far as $1.29 or higher, I'd expect at least a pullback at the next resistance level and if we do get that, we can see how the pullback acts to determine whether resistance can be broken to the upside or not.

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