Opening Indications

Since the first hour or two tends to be a lot of noise as stops are run and limit orders are placed or hit and then often faded in the a.m., I try to wait until a bit of the a.m. trade (a time when a lot of professional traders won't even look at the market as it can be that far off in manipulation) has passed to look at opening indications.

Here's what we have short term and what some of the slightly longer term charts hold as a short term probability, again this is VERY much in line with the short term expectations of some gains and slightly longer term expectations of a real market problem as the structure of the market is really just rot- as in no structural support at all; as seen in last night's posts as well, especially the breadth post where some of the breadth indicators got worse and actually doubled their readings in 1 day!

Here's what we have so far this morning in the averages.

 CONTEXT'S SPY Arbitrage model- keep in mind these are delayed about 30-45 mins.

 The CONTEXT (ES) Model which is showing the model at lower levels than ES, which isn't surprising really, the correlation factor is VERY high, it's been running close to 1.0 and is just backing off a bit with a differential of negative 8+ ES points as of 10:15 a.m.

 The SPY Momentum Screen shows the break down yesterday and everything going positive today.

 This is the 1 min SPY opening indications, an initial pullback off the morning highs, but the longer term (still short term) is favorable for more upside.

 SPY 5 min positive

 DIA 1 min opening indications, also negative off the a.m. highs, but...

 DIA 5 min is positive and supportive of near term upside.

 IWM 1 min intraday

 IWM's 5 min is positive and...

 The 10 min is as well, this is one of the stronger averages for underlying trade.

 QQQ 1 min negative off the a.m. highs and now positive intraday

Also supportive on the 5 min chart for near term trade.

The longer term charts are still very much negative as I expect some nasty downside not being too far off, I do expect near term upside first, but as mentioned, the charts look progressively worse and in my view like we see near term upside, but the next break could be a deep one.

Here's an example...

This is a SEVERE change in character on the 60 min QQQ chart and this is why I want to ride any short term higher, but keep positions pretty speculative in size and be prepared to sell short in to any price strength, GOOG being a perfect example.