Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Bearish Engulfing...

It's very early on in the day, but these are very volatile days, their not like a month ago. So far, the bearish engulfing candle I imagined with a gap up and an ugly finish is in place in the QQQ and moving in that direction in the SPX, IWM and Dow.

I'm sure the Q's will bounce, but it's hard to imagine them being in a better position than first thing this morning or having picked them up yesterday.

As far as the events moving the market,  their all the same as what was posted in the pre-market update this morning.

Pay attention to the 9:30 timeframe on the charts (US Market open)

 The EUR/USD which was strong overnight off German economic numbers, but the ECB is going to work hard to push it down as a strong Euro benefits only one country in all of the Euro-zone, the biggest exporter, Germany.

The 3C negative divergence was apparent in the pre-market update and by the open (green arrow on the timescale), the pair fell-market negative.


 I always confirm so I looked at the Euro single currency, it too had a negative pre-market divergence and by the open it fell, the market never had a chance, just a head fake move it looks like.

For the EUR/USD to fall, the $USD has to rise, it had a c;lear positive divergence as seen in the pre-market update, look at the $USDX at 9:30 (green arrow) market negative.

I don't even have to say anything about the $AUD, beyond what was said already, the $AUD was telegraphing this cut yesterday with very poor performance-another market negative and above the Yen, which I said had a 3C positive divergence pre-market and it flew on the 9:30 open (green arrow), another market negative.

Beyond that, Leading Indicators were showing VIX Futures as well as Treasuries moving up with the market, that's not going to work and very soon after the market open, it didn't work.

There were plenty of signals both yesterday and today, at least thus far. I'm much happier and more relaxed having opened the positions yesterday, I don't think I could have got to all of them today, maybe 1 add here or there.

However, again, it is early, so we'll wait and see if anything else sets up as high probability. My gut feel is that this is not the final break, but possibly one of the last before a final-the short squeeze shakeout still seems high probability as even today's upside volume wasn't very impressive.

If you moved yesterday, you should be good and soon happy, if not, maybe we get a chance today somewhere.



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