Thursday, May 16, 2013

TLT Makes Huge Jump-Yields Fall

Yesterday I showed you a large positive divergence in TLT, there was also a gap fill with a stop-run head fake move (remember head fakes almost always occur right before a big move in the opposite direction-think of this as a mini bear trap for TLT), here's what it looks like on the open, this is a strong move and is right in line with what I said last night about TLT & Safe Haven assets...

"While TLT showed early strength that quickly faded, I believe it was intentional to run stops as it showed remarkable resiliency on the intraday 3C charts..."

"stops were run in a small head fake move with a strong closing leading positive as well, it seems the other form of protection was being more aggressively bid than is revealed by price alone-there's a market message there, you just have to listen for it."

 Here's TLT's gap up this morning to the right on a 5 min chart.

This came as a result of yesterday's action-remember price is deceiving, yesterday's bearish TLT action was to effect a head fake, then it recovered after accumulating stopped out shares.

This is the bigger picture for the positive TLT divergence...

 This is the same chart I showed last night, there's a message from the market here.

The jump in TLT resulted in Yields falling, Yields are like a magnet for stock prices.

SPY vs Yields this morning (red).

VXX is starting to gather strength, HYG is the wildcard.

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