Market Update

OK, levers have been out in full force, the Yen gave the market the open door to make the head fake breakout higher and it couldn't even do that.

Here are the charts as best as I can put them together as fast as I can.

I'm trying to determine market status first and foremost, although I'd like to be concentrating on trades, this is most important especially for those of us who have been building our positions.

First the Yen angle-you know the Yen has been moving the market via an inverse correlation or mirror reversal.

 FXY or the Yen-if you don't know about the correlation see this post from last night or yesterday's
In orange the Yen gave the market an open door to break out of those triangle in most of the averages, as you can see the SPY wasn't able to do much (red). In white the Yen has advanced again which puts negative pressure on the market, whether the Yen advances more immediately or not, I don't know, you saw the post last night, it's completing a rounding base more than half way done so it should be going up, pressuring the market down.

Yen futures with 3C show at "A" the relative neg. divergence (weakest kind) sending the Yen lower intraday-this was the SPX's chance, at "B" a positive divergence sending Yen higher, right now perfectly in line, whether it moves higher or pulls back again is unknown as there's no signal other than in line with price.

 The market tried (SPY above) to breakout of triangles at 11:30, heavy manipulation of levers was used as you can see on the SPY Arbitrage chart below-look at the time of the attempt and the time of an immediate change in SPY Arb.-11:30

At 11:30 they manipulate using HYG to try to help the market higher, even this does little good, really no good.

In the mean time as predicted, all other risk assets other than stocks are selling off as the ES CONTEXT model's differential is even deeper now approaching 30 ES points negative on the model.

 Intraday 3C SPY chart negative/distribution at what time? 11:30-it looks like sellers are overpowering the attempt to break out the market as we saw in HYG earlier in the week, this would be a major change in character and bring us at the edge of the selling stampede-again think AAPL from the highs losing 45%.

SPY 5 min is getting worse so you know the more important charts are also moving today also.

SPY 15 min-very important timeframe is also showing heavier distribution.

QQQ 2 min shows the same distribution at the breakout attempt.

QQQ 15 min is also showing severe distribution in the area.

 IWM 1 min also shows distribution on today's breakout attempt.

IWM 10 min chart shows this area seeing a worse divergence, more distribution than normal, this is huge.

Here's the asset used in SPY Arbitrage manipulation, there are only 3 (HYG, TLT, VXX) HYG was used at exactly 11:30 to try to help the market, it's still working, but you see there's distribution in to the move higher as expected.

 This was the "gas in the tank " I said could drive HYG higher, the "A" is the first attempt moving higher sold in to immediately, now we are seeing this chart degrade to the right as HYG is again sold in to higher prices, this is a sprint away from risk as it is used for market manipulation.

The other two assets-flight to safety (TLT ) and flight to protection (VXX-VIX Futures) are not cooperating with the manipulation event showing there's underlying demand and 3C shows it as well.

TLT 5 min has been strong, it's in a holding pattern after gapping up today as I said it would last night.

Intraday we see accumulation building, the divergence should migrate to longer timeframes.

VXX also in a holding pattern-but not being driven down by the manipulation of the arbitrage and also showing a positive divergence which is market negative in both cases. I assume they will keep on trying until HYG backs off.

VXX longer term is ready to rock higher, very market negative.

I believe what we are seeing is fear to buy risk, even with all the manipulation they are selling higher prices, between the SPY Arb. manipulation and the Yen giving the market an open door, it couldn't do anything with it, that can only be because the sellers are overwhelming the efforts to manipulate us in to this head fake move, which as I pointed out earlier would almost certainly be a bull trap right before a reversal.

To me it feels like we are right on the edge, it feels like risk is being sold at any cost, even lower prices which is almost unheard of and protection is being bought keeping it from falling.

I'll likely have little time for emails as I watch everything I can through the rest of the day, but whether we have a break today, tomorrow (unlikely because of an op-ex pin) or Monday, I think we are seeing all the same signs we saw in AAPL and everything shouts "This market is slipping fast"

More as I find it...