Market Update

Right now, any one who says they know what's going to happen in the market is simply guessing (I mean short term ), I can't even give you a decent probability YET, but I suspect something will develop.

I don't see this as an advantageous area to be trading so if anything I'd be doing some portfolio maintenance/Spring Cleaning and paying attention and looking for changes in character and subtle hints, they could be any where, in credit, Treasuries, VIX futures, the A/D line, market breadth, VWAP, currencies, etc. It's a lot of looking which I'm doing.

Here is what we have so far and why I say no one can tell you what will happen, especially as we have increased volatility, unpredictability, we have those trying to pin the market for options expiration of the weeklies and we have those who are just selling any strength, plus it's a Friday before a weekend when traders rather not hold risk and I believe we have the F_E_D's POMO schedule for June coming out after the close, not to mention currencies, emotions, etc-we have a thick stew of a lot of different dynamics.

This is all we know for certain right now, that will change-it always does.


IWM

 1 min had a positive divergence on the open, this is the NYSE Specialist effect, although I'm not saying they did this, this is the same concept, gap down to the lowest area of the bid/ask stack, buy there and run it up, that doesn't tell us much.

3C being almost perfectly in line since doesn't tell us a lot either except there isn't a really ugly negative in to the move.

 2 min chart was also positive at the open, then in line, now a slight relative negative.

The 15 min chart shows the massive distribution on the reversal, the "W" area (yellow) and the accumulation of that base, but it doesn't look so hot today.

This could lead to a number of scenarios with this volatility, a move down in to the close and then a resumption of the base's implications to the upside next week or a break down today, there are a dozen scenarios I could name. Until we have more information, it's impossible to say, especially with the 15 min looking this way right now.


QQQ

 1 min distribution yesterday thus the PUT that was closed this morning, you see that, how nimble you have to be even with a small trade like that? Imagine those who can't see what we see and are trying to buy the dip or swing trade, they're getting slaughtered in the volatility.

Again we have a positive on the open-the NYSE effect,  and in line now

3 min negative yesterday, in line now-at least as of the capture of this chart-actually I looked, still in line.

 QQQ 10 min not seeing any strength from this morning's move, so it's not that strong.


SPY

 1 min perfectly in line and still is.

the 5 min is in line intraday, but back out to the trend of 3C and give it some context beyond intraday...

The period we are looking at is the last leading negative divergence to the right.

The 15 min chart with the "W", this gives some impression of hope.

Looking at the chart above, it "seems" like the "W" base is still or can still be salvaged and/or in play. Today's Op-Ex pin makes price do funny things to make sure roughly 90% of all options (calls and puts) expire worthless because Wall St. writes the most options, retail (like us) by them, actually the juice is in writing them, the premium is in writing them and so are the probabilities as roughly 90% expire worthless and the writer keeps all the premium.

The point I'm trying to make is this, even if we take this 15 min chart and move forward as if the "W" base will still pop to the upside, there's still the story of the journey between here and there, just like there's the bigger story of the journey from here to...

HERE

I'll give you whatever I come up with as soon as I come up with it. 

Needless to say, with as many assets as I need to watch, my first priority is to all members which means I'll be slow like yesterday in answering individual emails. This is a perfect example of the problem I face in trading a model portfolio of my money, it sure is hard to put money in the market and not have it be your first or even second or third priority.