Friday, May 31, 2013

Possible HYG Trade Set-Up

As Always, we want the trade to come to us on our terms, we want to have a plan and not react emotionally and last minute.

This is what I see as a potential trade, it would be long HYG which is like being long the SPY, there's a chance HYG shows better relative performance as it may need to be pushed more (as a lever) to get the SPY up because there really is no institutional demand, they have set up this "W" base, it can be seen by most traders, they saw the dip, they see the base, if it breaks out, then retail is going to chase it and they are going to do the work of driving it higher as smart money is going to be feeding their demand on the other side of the trade by selling the small amount of accumulated shares to create the "W" base and short selling is also selling and fills a buy order the same as a sale does.

This would be a speculative trade, remember a move from the "W", if we can get it, is an emotional game, it's the move that comes after that is what the market is really about so again as I've been saying with all of these calls/long trades, they are hit and run, they are short term and speculative.

Here's the set up.

 the 3 min chart saw a positive divergence on the break of intraday support

 Here's the 5 min, the last time it fired (the divergence for the last move up was actually larger, you just can't see it as it was further off to the left, but notice the head fake move right before the reversal up.  We see accumulation on the 5 min chart at the same area today and volume confirms either some stops were hit or shorts jumped in, either way it's selling they can accumulate.

Back to the 15 min chart, the lower yellow trendline is where I'd really like to consider HYG as a short term call trade.

I want the downside momentum, the calls to drop in price and buy in to price weakness with 3C strength, I'm setting an alarm to let me know if it breaks.

I was planning on using HYG June $94 calls, but now I'm re-thinking that, here's the ticker  HYG1322F94

For $93 calls, the ticker is HYG1322F93.

The 93's are about twice as much money, I'm actually steering more toward 93's if we get that break.

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