I just took a stroll through numerous assets, earlier today, I believe pre-market I said that I didn't think the gap up prices from the overnight ES ramp would hold, but we may find ourselves back up there by the end of the day. What I meant was the positive divergences that I need to see to start any speculative longs for a short squeeze move were not there yesterday, I thought it best to be patient and wait for them to develop. I also think and have thought that a fast reversal to the upside would be most effective meaning any positive divergences that develop to support such a move would have to develop pretty fast, a lot faster than normal and perhaps may even be in place by the EOD.
So far here's what I've seen, but it's fast moving and may have changed already.
USO doesn't look great as far as 3C goes, but I don't see a great set up there either, I do like SCO long which is an open position and will remain so, it is improving.
The IWM and SPY are both showing early signs of a positive divergence building, this is just a start and very early so it's not time to act on it, it's time to be patient and confirm.
I'm glad I closed the XLF put yesterday, today there's initial signs of improvement as I'd like to see
GS is also showing initial signs of positive divergences
AAPL is not yet going positive, I wouldn't expect it to this soon, but it has made the move I was hoping to see as mentioned yesterday
UNG is showing improvement, remember the volatile EIA Nat Gas report is out tomorrow.
UVXY is showing signs of deterioration, which would confirm positive signs in the averages like the SPY.
GLD is improving and I'll keep the GLD call position open, I'm not as crazy about SLV.
MCP is improving, I still like this long a lot and will keep the call positions open
HYG is showing odd price strength, I mentioned HYG's unusual strength yesterday, it did not appear that way at first look, but when you really took a closer look, there was strength there yesterday and it continues today, this is very important for any potential short squeeze.
TLT is starting to see some weakness which fits with HYG and UVXY.
These are initial signs, they need to improve and really impress before I'd enter long, you see what would have happened if I had followed emotion and done so yesterday, that's what a journal would have revealed, that yesterday's decision to ignore emotion was the right call.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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