AAPL A Bellwether?

So you saw my last comments, while some charts improved (mostly not as bad as they were earlier today), I don't feel like this move to the downside is done yet. While a fast reversal is ideal for a short squeeze, the fact of the matter is just about every reversal needs some time, that's why I call it a process, to rearrange positions. For you or I, rearranging a position can be done in minutes as we are trading 100 lots for the most part, institutional money is trading in much bigger size and they can't just put a 100k share order out there, they'd take out the entire bid or ask stack and lose massive amounts of money, that's why there's a process as they break the orders up and try to sell in to price strength and buy in to price weakness.

The main point I'm trying to make is about AAPL.

First, the market did exactly what we suspected last week (as we had already put positions in place last week and closed them yesterday), let me just review that real quick...

The  daily chart above shows the entire set up that we have been forecasting since late May with a very specific description of expectation on Monday, June 3rd (the day after the red break). I expected the market would give  traders a failed test of resistance and then price confirmation the next day to short in to.

Yesterday the market did even better and pushed above resistance briefly only to lose it, even more bearish for traders and today gave them price confirmation and a chance to get in at as the opening gap may have been too far for them to chase (at least a faction of them).

You know what my opinion of the market was before the close as I wrote in this post... To be brief,

"SPY 5 min negative still suggests this move is not done on the downside or at least not ready for a move to the upside."

Earlier in the day I updated AAPL, showed you what I thought was going on and gave you an idea of exactly what I think AAPL would do before taking off to the upside, which I also thought would be coordinated with the broader market move to the upside after this move is done. 

Again, to be brief (sort of)...

"This brings us right back to the triangle, I'd say it is VERY likely that there's a head fake move that breaks below the triangle which would be in line with out shorter term trend expectations for the market, this is the head fake move we see before 80+% of reversals, it will allow Wall Street to accumulate stops and more importantly will use the new shorts as fuel to power an upside move on a short squeeze.

It is my belief that not only will an AAPL downside head fake move below the triangle match up with our current market expectations, but the reversal to the upside in AAPL will occur at the same time the market bear trap/ short squeeze occurs and AAPL's nearly 20% weight will help lift the NASDAQ 100."
And AAPL's close today...

 The close is just above support, the low of the day was right at support.

Actually the low was just below support and you can see stops were hit because Technical Traders are incredibly predictable even if you don't have the total depth of the entire book sitting in front of you.

I would say with the trendlines moving to the next day the break in AAPL would be just under $435, this doesn't mean it hits $435 and just reverses to the upside, no, it could be quite an ugly breakdown, but the head fake move (we will have to confirm the break is a head fake, but I have strong reason to believe it will be)  is almost always the very last thing to occur before a reversal (to the upside with a breakout above the triangle in AAPL and coordinated with the market), this goes for virtually any timeframe you trade..

So I believe we now have AAPL as a Bellwether to give us a clear head's up as to when the market is going to make its move. Just so you know, the head fake move has been a key part of our timing for a long time now. Also the head fake move serves many functions, it's good to understand them and that's why I wrote the two articles detailing how these moves came to be and why they are so common, what function they serve as it will serve you well. The links to the articles along with others can be found near the top right side of the member's site...

If you haven't read them already, I suggest you do as you will also learn a lot about the character of the market, how Wall Street thinks and how you can apply this to your every day trades no matter what asset you trade, no matter what kind of trader/investor you are.