Tuesday, June 11, 2013

VXX / UVXY Long

This is why I only closed 25% in VXX as I think it can move a lot higher and 50% of AMZN and XLF (I think they can move higher, but I think volatility has a better chance of making greater gains than equities).

I personally would not add to or initiate new call positions in VXX / UVXY, but I would consider VXX or UVXY (UVXY would be my pick for the leverage) as a quick long trade in this area, they are not expensive like calls would be because of the options pricing model.

While I suspect the position wouldn't be closed until at least tomorrow, it's really about volatility or amplitude right now more than time so I would make sure that if I didn't have a regulation "T" compliant account, that I understood my broker's position on what constitutes a pattern day trader (I believe the law is 3 day trades in a 5-day rolling period, but each brokerage can have stiffer standards if they chose).

The VXX charts, UVXY and TVIX would look the same.

 VXX 2 min positive yesterday and now today's intraday chart has gone positive.

The 5 min chart's positive, this is roughly where the positive VXX divergences end and roughly where the market averages 5 min negatives end, so this is why I say I think we have at least until tomorrow, but I'd be careful not to violate Reg T.

At 10 mins there's no positive in VXX and few negatives in the averages, thus this downside move in my view may be very strong, but it still looks to be capped and the market still looks like it will rise after the shorts are locked in after the second failed attempt at resistance yesterday, they have to be feeling confident.

This is the VXX 1 min chart, note how the EOD sell off was accumulated in VXX, a perfect head fake, the point being they occur on all timeframes.

I think this move could also be played with long equity positions in SPXU, SQQQ, FAZ, TECS or SRTY which is my least favorite, FAZ is one of my favorites other than UVXY.

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