Market Update

I'm here, I'm just keeping a close eye on things.

The move that was needed was already materialized, now it's a question of how far they take it.

 The two yellow arrows are the failed tests of resistance, this gets bears interested, the confirmation in price like today is what draws them in, so it's a matter of how many they have, how far they want to take it and what type of reversal (I suspect a fast reversal to get the most effective short squeeze) and most importantly, when.

 This is the Yen 5 min, the 1 min is positive and in line and the 15 min below is leading positive, it's this 5 min in between that bothers me, perhaps it just needs some time, but I'd like to see it at least confirm.

Yen 15 min leading positive, this would suggest that the USD/JPY which is falling again and taking the market with it, has more downside to go, but if that 5 min chart grows worse than better, we may be looking at a fast reversal to the upside to start the short squeeze, this is why I closed partial shorts (puts) today, I wanted to save some for this move I expected.

This is also why I don't want to take on any new leveraged trades of any size and why I still have longer dated Call options still open.

One thing that is popping up that hasn't been for a long time is the AUD/JPY is looking a bit better than it should, that could be an upside catalyst and of course you know I don't like parabolic moves and don't trust them, even when they are going our way.

TLT is another asset that doesn't look right to me today.

HYG as I suspected continues to see positive divergences so I believe smart money is putting on a sizable long position there for a short squeeze as we have expected.

 SPY 1 min is in line

the 2 min suggests more downside to go

And the 5 min chart has been the chart telling us this move was coming, but is also the cap on the downside, 10 min charts are close to inline, the more powerful 15 min charts are positive ready for a short squeeze.

This is the one time where I think a reversal will be more of an event than a process so that's keeping me on my toes.

I'll let you know is anything else pops up, I will likely be looking to close the rest of the VXX calls, the AMZN Puts and XLF puts on momentum, if it looks as if it will fade or anything really pops out of place, I'll close them immediately, they are speculative and I'd rather be safe and profitable than sorry.