Friday, June 14, 2013

Final Update

Ok, the second part of the last update was it looked like an intraday move up, "Unless it was building for next week".

Obviously I can't be sure as things change fast and I would  rather see the EOD charts and Sunday.

My gut feel is that maybe we get an intraday move to the upside and it fails, there definitely looks like there's a failure in the market being set up, however my early gut feeling is this is to accumulate and to give bears confidence, as I said yesterday, I didn't think today was a day of much consequence, it wouldn't be until next week they can keep the emotional pressure on a short squeeze.

Some of the most important things I've found are in HYG, VXX and TLT.

HYG is being sold on 3C charts and in price now, however the 10/15 min charts that are where the next move has made it's home are very strong for this risk asset the market tends to move with.

VXX which moves opposite the market looks like ther could be a small intraday market bounce that is set to fail, this also could be stretched out to early next week, however in the timeframes where it counts for the move for next week, VXX is still looking like it's highest probability move will be down (market up).

TLT is setting up what looks to be a big move down for next week, this is market positive, but I think also specific to a longer term (long) TLT trade that would coincide with the final market dump.

So to put it in a neat box, timing looks unsure, but it looks fairly obvious that they are trying to create the effect of a market failure, perhaps an attempt (maybe today) to run up with a noticeable failure to give bears confidence. This is bigger than just today, I'm guessing it will play in to early next week.

So again, I wouldn't make any plans on longer term positions yet, I'm still not moving anything around, but I think (as they will never make it easy), they are setting up a fairly strong look of failure in the market. The important charts where the market short squeeze and moves like yesterday are residing (the last move of bearish and down was on 5 min charts) are on 10-15 min charts and that's where strength remains, in some cases grows.

Bottom line, psychological warfare is about to commence, don't get lost in it.
I have to get ready to get going, obviously I'll have another update out either later tonight or tomorrow.

Be patient, let them have their games, they only help us set new positions and don't fall victim to psychological games, as I said before all of this, "Pullback the red curtain and it's all psychological".

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