Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Quick Update

This market and gaps is just so predictable and its a shame, ever since HFT entered the market, Ggaps are almost always filled and its a shame because certain gaps like break-away and exhaustion gaps were very useful, not to mention things like Island tops, etc.

In any case we have largely a gap fill, there doesn't seem to be much more to it than that. The DIA and IWM continue to improve, the Q's are in line intraday and haven't made any effort to fill their gap, the SPY I would say is slightly improved in that at least it's in line with the recent small turn up around 12 pm.

The R2K Futures, TF, are seeing a strong leading positive signal, it keeps getting stronger, here it is.
TF R2K 1 min leading positive

ES is improving a bit, but not what I'd call positive viewed on its own. Strangely just as the IWM and TF (both R2K) are the strongest and looking good, NQ which is the NASDAQ 100 futures are almost perfectly in line, just like the QQQ chart. I don't see that too often, but I'd call it good confirmation.

The TICK is just starting to form an up-trend channel, it will be useful to keep an eye on.

VXX overall looks very much in line with the market going higher, almost all timeframes are in line with that concept, however there is 1, a 3 min that still has maintained, which doesn't suggest any strong probabilities at this point, but it leaves the door open for a correction in the market again until that chart disappears, but we are really getting fussy with this. The 15, 30, 60 min charts of the futures I showed last night are really the big story, all of the other details I think just contribute to high blood pressure if you get too wrapped up in every intraday move while volatility throughout the market is this high.

I sid we'd look at TLT and we will, it's very interesting.

For now my general feeling is that some more consolidation behavior is probable and during that, I'd like to see the positive divergence develop strongly in to that side-way range.

Here's the intraday IWM, compare to TF (R2K futures above), but my main point is the consolidation and longer timeframes seeing divergences like the IWM's 1 and 2 min for today during its pullback.
IWM 1 min, the divergence should keep moving up, but they aren;t typically going to accumulate prices moving up, thus the range with prices falling down to the lower area where the divergence continues to build, that's what I'm looking for, at least for at least until maybe 2 pm as of this point.

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