3rd Verse. Same as the Second and First?

This morning we are going to see a third gap down, I feel like this is almost some kind of Pavlov conditioning, "Oh, I know how this ends...A slow, low volume melt-up to a green close!" and then....


It doesn't. We'll see, but these patterns, like, "Buy the dip" that work until they don't and then you have a lot of unhappy, drooling dogs.

Kuroda of the BOJ spoke last night, didn't say anything that the market wanted to hear and the Nikkei futures (and Nikkei) hit another low (we were at 13,775 last night, now 13,630).

las night 3C was in an area where it "could" have turned up to the first positive divergence, it seems the market was waiting and taking in Kuroda's speech (of the BOJ) and didn't like what they heard, as I said last night, 3C never turned up so it wasn't a divergence until it did, this is what Nikkei 225 futures (15m) look like now.


I checked the USD/JPY and the AUD/JPY and found them both to be rather interesting considering market action intraday, but maybe not as surprising as far as closing action goes, I need to look at the charts of the former carry pairs more closely, there's something of a missing puzzle piece there.

The Shanghai Composite didn't fare well either, closing below 2000 as participants became acutely aware that a revision of local debt was set to "possibly " double Chinese non-performing loans, essentially giving some sting of reality to the fact that the PBoC is not going to do anything (the one Central Banck that won't give in to the ridiculous notion of debasing, which is odd because it use to seem China was the lead debaser....and then came Japan).


 All I can say right now about ES, is the 5 min chart looks similar to last week's action going in to today's open.

Although it was overnight, the last time we had a leading negative divergence early in the wee hours of Friday a.m., price followed it lower, it's nearly the same set up right now.

The 1 min charts are largely in line.