Monday, July 29, 2013

GS Trade Update

Earlier today GS saw some intraday accumulation, it was fairly strong for intraday, but still only so much can be accumulated in a day.

The point being, like so many other assets including the major averages (like we saw with the IWM), GS is seeing distribution very early on in the move, it's like the impression I had last night, "Sell in to any kind of strength, even if it's not very strong" meaning even if it's not a green day on the close, as long as it's off the lows of the day.

I'd absolutely consider GS as a core short position and already have a position started there. I'd also consider it as a put position for a quick momentum move, I think it's very close, but I would show just a little more patience, it may be a day, it may be Wednesday, but I would think the market would front run anything they suspect might be coming from the F_E_D/F_O_M_C.

Here's GS a bit later today after it had seen earlier accumulation that I though would send it higher intraday today.

 Earlier intraday accumulation (1 min) which is already seeing distribution on that small move to the upside intraday. I don't think this is heavy enough to open a short or at least not a put position here, a short position is probably something that could be done here if you have enough risk tolerance to deal with some probable drawdown, the problem we are seeing is the "probable draw down"  that we'd normally see on signals like this, is getting to be more and more of a slippery slope.

GS 2 min which was leading positive earlier at the lows, but already seeing some distribution in to higher prices intraday.

The 3 min chart is also seeing it so we have migration from the 1-3 min chart all in half a day.

The larger 5 min relative (but weaker) divergence is still relatively intact, I'd want to see this start falling apart before considering a put option, but with the speed this is already falling apart, it could be there very soon.

Right now HYG and whether it can hold together and whether it can fire to the upside are going to be big "Ifs" for the overall market.

GS's longer term which has kept us from any short trades here kis clearly falling apart and badly off the base in June.

I'd prefer to see GS above $166 for an entry on the short side, not at $166, but above and of course the charts above looking worse.

The point of this post is to show how fast they are deteriorating intraday and I just used GS as an example as you already saw it when it was looking better earlier this morning, many assets look like thing INCLUDING HYG TO SOME EXTENT.

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