Opening Indications

Typically I don't trust the first hour to hour and a half of opening trade as there are a lot of games being played, stops or limits being run, this is especially true of Monday mornings, but I'm actually shocked at how "Calm" the 3C charts are, how close most assets are to in-line so far this morning, I don't expect it to last, but for now....

There's only 1 asset that had a divergence more significant than the others in early trade (although not of any special significance) and it has been the only one to trade notably, everything else is pretty darn close to in line and in my view, so far VERY flat with few signals as if the market is waiting for something or is unsure about something. THAT SOMETHING WOULD CLEARLY BE THE F_O_M_C MEETING STARTING TOMORROW QITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT MADE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GDP WEDNESDAY.  I'd say 3C trade looks EXACTLY the way I'd expect it to all things considered with this meeting.

In fact, the action last week of distribution in o any "strength" also fits very well. 

 As some of the longer charts develop, perhaps we'll see an underlying pattern become apparent, but for now, it's the same as what I showed you last night, distribution in to anything resembling strength (and price strength is a VERY relative in the context of recent trade).

The only other thing that stands out is near term positive divergence in HYG, it conflicts with a lot of other assets.

Most of the time the market will try to front-run the F_E_D, Bernie has done a pretty good job of muddying up the waters though, however I do find the new revisions to GDP to be very interesting and wonder if they're not another face-saving way for the F_E_D to back out of QE, the same way they changed the yard stick for QE guidance from a calendar based one to a very easy to manipulate and arbitrary "Economic based" measure.

Any way, I better post these as we are starting to see some changes, most of the negative price changes since these were captured are also seeing a more negative 3C intraday stance as well so I may follow this up very shortly with a revised update. At least this will give you a base line to compare the next update to.

It does make sense to me that there was distribution as I showed you last night in to any intraday moves to the upside.

 NQ 1 min was the only Index futures that was even slightly positive in to the open and you can see how price responded on the open, this is however, only intraday.

The NQ 5 min chart is still leading negative since late Friday and the opening yesterday for futures trade.

 The DIA has an overall negative 1 min intraday trend, intraday today it is in line with price here, but you can clearly see the trend is leading DIA negative.

IWM 1 min has been in line EVERYWHERE EXCEPT at areas of "price strength) and that term is used somewhat loosely with the IWM and more loosely with other averages.

 QQQ 1 min intraday is nearly perfectly in line as of this capture with intraday trade, which is strange for a Monday morning.

 The SPY intraday chart is nearly perfectly in line on this intraday 1 min chart.

This is where things kind of enter the "Twightlight Zone", this almost makes me wonder if HYG will be used to stage a final price move to the upside that is sold in to very hard as I pointed out in my post last night from Thursday and Friday.

 HYG 5 min, a respectable timeframe for near term trade, but not a "Big picture trend", shows very clear distribution at a very flat price range (they are tell tale activity areas-either accumulation or distribution depending on where they occur in the trend) and strangely recent positive 3C readings at a flat price range, this is what suggests to me HYG may be used to try to lift price to sell in to again like last week. 

TLT becomes VERY interesting in this scenario.

TLT 2 min intraday trend shows a very slight negative divergence, this is what I was hoping to see so we'd have a shot at TLT at lower prices just as I mentioned last week before I left for vacation, I thought we'd see lower prices AND I THOUGHT WE'D SEE ACCUMULATION OF THOSE LOWER PRICES WHICH WE DID.

It seems someone is making last minute preparations for an F_O_M_C announcement this week.

VXX also has seen some accumulation at lows, intraday today as of this capture it was in line, lets see how things change.

Despite last week's gut-wrenching intraday and opening trade, I think the underlying patterns are a lot more negative than price would ever suggest.