AAMRQ / LCC

This is really ironic timing, last night before I went to bed I was setting my alerts on my Galaxy S4 (Yes, I finally gave up on the IP after owning every single model until the IP5 which I described as "evolutionary" rather than "revolutionary" for the first time in AAPL's IP history and although there's a learning curve and AAPL is really the best at simple, intuitive interfaces, I love the S4).

In any case on the news feed I saw an ex-girlfriend who recently became a Flight Attendant for US Airways and something really irked me about it, I don't know if it was her ID badge she had posted with WAY too much makeup, the fact that the entire time we dated she REFUSED to work, the fact that she talks about it non-stop on FB while my wife has been an international flight attendant for 15+ years or the cheerleading end of the update that said something about LCC being, "Part of the NEW American Airlines", which just came off like a AA commercial, in any case, this morning AAMRQ was cut in half on news that DOJ is bringing suit to block the merger on "Anti-Trust" grounds, so I'm a little petty in being irked and then kind of feeling better about it, ok, VERY petty.

In any case, a lot of you have asked if AAMRQ is a "Dead cat bounce" play. In my view, you can probably guess what I'll say, I don't see any evidence based charts to support that at this time, to me it's probably not even as good of odds as "Black or Red" at this point. This would be the most speculative of speculative longs looking for a dead cat bounce, they simply need more time in most cases like FSLR today and it's decline wasn't anything like AMRQ's.

We can keep tracking it to see if there is a point in which evidenced based charts start putting probabilities on a dead cat bounce, but as of now, I think it's a total Las Vegas style gamble.