Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Currency Indications - USD/JPY

I don't know of a good, liquid way to leverage up the $USD other than trading FX, but if I were trading FX I may very well be looking at $USD long or USD/JPY long.

This is a carry pair and it tends to move the market, for example, the USD/JPY is in red/green candlesticks and SPX futures are purple on this 5 min chart.
 You can see the overnight session USD/JPY was tightly correlated with ES (S&P Futures) as they both dug lower.

This 1 min chart shows from about 2 a.m. to present so you can see how strong the correlation is, but it looks like this currency (carry) cross may be working on a reversal which would have an effect on the market as well.

The 1 min $USDX chart is flying with a leading positive divergence, even the 5 min chart is seeing migration.
 
The Yen on the other hand which has been moving higher no doubt in large part to the carry being covered, is now leading negative on the 1 min chart confirming the $USD's signal.


Even the USD/JPY pair is starting to put in a 1 min positive divergence (possible) reversal signal.

 This is just another small hint of changes in character that are much different than the market's open.

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