MINERS and General Concepts

As far as Market Concepts go, which to me are more valuable than most anything we do here because you can apply them to all kinds of trades throughout your life.

This morning looked HORRIBLE, especially for those of us either in GDX puts or DUST long (or NUGT short).

I received quite a few emails before the open about whether or not it was time to give up on DUST/GDX,

I said the same thing to everyone which came from this morning's pre-market update...

"War is serious and these are serious premiums added, however at this point I'm largely core short, as far as the DUST long position that is suffering because of gold's elevation overnight, there's no chance I'm selling it here, especially with a limited strike and an overnight spike....I think it would be premature, emotional panic to close dust long on this overnight emotional panic."

I followed up with a second post just to be more clear, 

WAR Premium

"Buying when war starts is not about industry or GDP going up, it's about "UNCERTAINTY" BEING REMOVED FROM THE MARKET.

Right now there's an uncertainty, "Will the US strike Syria? Will Bashar Capitualte first? Will the Russians give aid as they have a naval port there? What will be Israel's response? How might Iran react? What could happen in Egypt as a result? What if the attack is a disaster?

All of these questions run through the markets mind, a panic starts and it snowballs like crude and gold did over night to the upside with equities to the downside, this isn't about anything else at this time.

I'm rather content to collect data of underlying trade action then make an emotional decision...

Are these assets being shorted at high levels?

Are stocks being accumulated at low levels?

That's what I intend to find out today and moving forward."

In any case, you've heard the phrase, "When the missles fly, it's time to buy" many times here in the context of "market uncertainty, not so much war, now we get to see it first hand.

I'll update the market in a bit, I'd like to see what futures do, but as for DUST long, it gapped down about -8% this morning, took it all back and closed up over +13% today, this is why I want to make decisions based on data, not emotions.

Some of you are interested in DUST today, as I said to many of you, I don't want to chase anything, it increases risk, but I think on a pullback or correction with positive 3C signals, DUST could make a great new position or add to, we have to wait until the market tells us. There's a hint that we will be seeing some slowing momentum on the upside, but just a hint thus far and out longer term charts suggest prices easily in the mid $30's.

 This is the leading negative 3C divergence in GDX 15 min, serious trouble.

The daily chart of DUST

The intraday gap down and thrust up for DUST

This 1 min chart was positive off the open, this is what I needed to wait and see at the open to start making a decision.

The 5 min DUST chart stayed leading so it looked good to me for a hold and I mentioned it earlier before the big run as a decent long today.

Ultimately this leading 15 min 3C chart suggests much higher prices so some of the positions entered today were in part based on this, a small part, but I think we can see some very respectable gains as long as we get out before distribution sets in and only buy pullbacks that have accumulation.