Monday, August 5, 2013

Financials Update

I'll likely have some specific companies coming up after this, for now the Financial Sector, XLF and some FAS/FAZ.

 First, as I generally like to do, is the big picture and here we have XLF (Financials) on a VERY significant 4 hour chart (I use to only use up to an hour and that was  super serious so the availability of these 2 and 4 hour charts should be taken with much greater emphasis).

At the yellow "Xs" I'm just demonstrating there's no positive divergence on the chart, it would have to be very significant accumulation to show up here, but the depth of the leading negative in place is quite extraordinary.

Of course you can see where I drew in a yellow trend line over recent price action because it is such an obvious zone where buy orders and BTC orders will be, there are a dozen reasons to hit those orders. If you have read my two articles "Understanding the Head-Fake Move", you'll understand how this developed, why, and how you can use it to your advantage, but even if there were ZERO sign of any signals suggesting a move above that level, I'd highlight it every time just because it is so obvious. The volume rebates and bid/ask spread on increased volume alone would be worth it, so just something to keep in mind.

Don't let that little yellow trend line distract you though from what is REALLY important on this chart.

 Again even on a 30 min chart (which is still a significant timeframe, but much less than a 4 hour), there's no sign of any accumulation to send XLF higher, if there was then I'd be considering how far that "Gas in the tank" could take Financials on the upside, but nothing.

Again, in this same zone where the 4 hour is widely negative, the 30 min gives us more detail on where exactly the bulk of the action took place recently, a 4 hour chart doesn't get that bad in a month, that's been going on a while (just as one of the 3 Private Equity firm's I referenced last night had taken over $10 bn in realized profits, meaning took their money and gains out of the market, said they have been SELLING EVERY THING NOT NAILED DOWN FOR THE LAST 15 MONTHS, BUT THEY ARE TELLING YOU NOW, "It's time to sell", but only after they did what distribution is and handed off their shares to retail.

If you think about a private equity fund the size of any of those three having been sellers for a year or more and they are publicly (all in the same week/day) saying to retail, "It's time to sell", just who exactly is retail supposed to sell to? I think it gives some scope of the potential downside/landslide.

 XLF on a 5 min chart, this shows the two recent ranges that I have drawn as one above, but to the left that range itself had a head fake move above the range before heading down as you can see at the yellow arrow on the 23rd's open. Again, there's almost no positive divergence here and the negative is just worse at this second high area.

 The 3 min chart is showing a pretty ugly recent negative divergence.

If I posted all of the confirming charts from FAS, FAZ, SKF and UYG we'd have 50 charts here, so simply...

FAS the 3x leveraged Long Financials ETF
 This is the 3 min chart, 3C DOES NOT move like prices move between an ETF and it's leveraged partner which is something the ETF's/funds manager has to do, the only way a 3C signal is similar is if there's similar underlying buying or selling between the two assets in the same field.

FAZ 3x SHORT Financials should have nearly the exact Opposite signal if something is going on as far as confirmation.
This is FAZ's 4 hour chart with a huge positive and ...

XLF's 4 hour chart again...
As you can see, the inverse or opposite FAZ has almost a mirror opposite signal from XLF (Financials) above on a 4 hour chart.

There's much more, but as I said it's a matter of posting dozens of charts. Obviously I would have no intention of letting go of FAZ long  positions or most financial shorts.

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