Market Update

I bet you thought I checked out, maybe sitting on the beach in the Hamptons? Nope, I've been going through a number of watchlists and futures, seeing what needed semi-immediate attention, seeing what looked good, what might be a threat to established positions and what basically needs to happen to open the floodgates on a number of new, short term (speculative in my book for the most part) positions.

This week has gone pretty much as expected and that's because there's a rhythm to a cycle, being an op-ex Friday (pin) and month end flows, it's a little more difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak.

In any case, what I am worried about the most right now is a 2-2:30 p.m. sudden market change as the op-ex pin is no longer needed and I'm trying to see where we might want to be as well as setting alerts.

Short term today there's only a few things that need to occur to make new long positions for a bounce high probability, most of that is in the reversal process (short term) and continuing to fill out the multiple timeframes, there are a number of assets that are confirming including VIX futures.

Here's a quick look at the averages so far,however, the most compelling charts are in individual assets, before I used 3C the way I could tell the market was turning was by going through a watchlist of about 300-500 stocks a night, spending about 1 second per chart flipping through, when I saw an overwhelming number of short set ups, I knew the market was ready to move down and vice-versa.

 DIA 2 min, this just needs to flatten out a bit

IWM 1 min looks the best as it is leading lately as it should be.

IWM 2 min

IWM 5 min

IWM 15 min since 8/16

IWM 30 min is now  a very serious chart/timeframe.

 QQQ 1 min again showing accumulation in to a pullback, this is a prerequisite for buying a pullback, we want to see they are buying lower prices.

QQQ 2 min showing a trend of buying lower prices.

 QQQ 5 min showing expanding divergences as we move forward.

SPY positive in to all downward price action today vs in line recently.

SPY showing the same as the Q's, pattern of lower prices being accumulated.

The SPY and most averages don't need a larger reversal process, it can really be done in several hours.

SPY 15 min since 8/16

Transports are an interesting give-away, this is why I closed the IYT short today,  1 min action.

As expected, IYT was to head for sub $112 price levels, but it has a positive divergence in to that head fake of a whole number which the mind gravitates toward with stops and limits.

 5 min transports.

The scary one is 60 min transports, transports are really there (to move up) so a rally looks convincing.

As seen yesterday, VIX futures (VXX / UVXY) showing strong recent weakness out of no where.

VXX 5 min

VXX 10 min

Actual VIX Futures 1 min negative, all VIX futures need is the short term to fail, there's already big damage to the longer charts.

like this 5 min VIX futures, the small positive gave us all this upside, imagine what this large negative can do.

HYG is positive in a number of timeframes, but now making it to 60 mins!

And the SPY vs NYSE TICK at 10 min to see the trend.