Market Update

These Friday Op-Ex pin markets are really starting to get annoying.

In any case, what we seem to have is some intraday (mostly 1-5 min) charts that are negative or in line to varying degrees in the averages with strong 10-15 min charts, typically if there's underlying strength built up and the market needs to be held back for something like an options expiration pin, typically we'd see stronger intraday charts like a 3 min, etc to hold back a 15 min leading positive. Clearly I think today could be considered, with the SPY trading in a VERY narrow range, that also happens to be forming an ascending (bullish) triangle that most Technical traders would expect to break to the upside, an options expiration pin.

However, back to that triangle, technical analysis teaches it should break to the upside, so perhaps these 1, 2, 3 and 5 min negatives are telling us there's going to be a break to the downside, I would expect this to be a head fake move because the 10 and 15 min charts are so strong.

There's the triangle to the far right, it should break soon.

Examples...

 DIA 2 min is negative from late yesterday as we knew, but hasn't done anything to move "in line" today so it's still negative.

IWM 5 min is negative from a former in line status, either this is being used to pin the market or we are likely going to see a head fake move around that triangle as most contracts are wrapped up around 2 p.m. or so.

The Q's 1 min look positive, but it's hard to judge as there's so much data missing from yesterday.

SPY 1 min was negative yesterday, that's why I said early trade would be negative today, but it remains negative and getting worse, still only a 1 min intraday though.

 SPY 2 and 3 are negative as well as this 5 min.

At 10 and 15 min in SPY and just about every other average they are very strong positive
 

The TICK today vs yesterday is VERY tame, like an options expiration pin would be.

However look at my custom TICK vs the SPX and note how TICK has gone from very negative to transitioning to positive and at what would be the second low where I said SPY NEEDED to go to build support, it's VERY positive.

HYG looks the exact same as SPY, short term negative, but 10-15 min VERY positive and HAS EVEN ADDED TO THE 30/60 MIN LEADING POSITIVE DIVEGRENCES TODAY.

My gut feeling is that this market is going higher, bounce or whatever you want to call it, BUT THEY AREN'T GOING TO GIVE IT AWAT FOR FREE, THEY ARE GOING TO MAKE YOU WORK FOR IT.

I'm guessing a downside shakeout would be the "Work for it part"

We'll keep tracking and seeing where opportunities pop up.