Friday, August 23, 2013

New Home Sales Should="Taper Off" sentiment

Perhaps it will, but the F_E_D is exiting policy for much bigger reasons than property values and home sales so in reality it really doesn't matter. Gold is acting as if it's taper off, but it has a technical reason to do so that was identified yesterday before noon I believe as well as last night well before the New Home Sales printed at 10:30.

Stocks look better, but are not seeing a knee-jerk higher and TLT is still rising so as I said earlier in the week, "I don't think a bounce is taper-based at all", and the market's scattered reaction seems to confirm that so far.

As for New Home Sales, when 60% of all homes are bought in cash and only 40% refinanced, you know the average mom and pop are not the ones doing the buying and the big Private Equity firms who are buying in cash are fickle about being landlords with some continuing to buy and other dumping portfolios of 75,000 homes at a time as the landlord business wasn't all that they had imagined.

New Home Sales...
Released On 8/23/2013 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Home Sales - Level - SAAR497 K487 K450 K to 505 K394 K

That's a miss of about -20%, median home prices fell as well and June's data was revised lower, how anyone ever believed there was a recovery in housing is beyond me unless all they did was listen to CNBC, but if they looked at any of the data over the last several months, it was clear no such event was occurring and with the mortgage rates rising I doubt it gets a whole lot better, just wait for the next private equity firm to dump their portfolio of rental homes on the market.

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