Friday, August 16, 2013

XLE (Energy) / ERY 3X Energy Bear

I'd much rather wait for a pullback in ERY, I think we get one, but if I'm considering an equity short (XLE) or ERY long, the truth is I think is perspective of the bigger picture, a few percent here and there isn't the most important thing when viewing these charts.


XLE The Energy Sector (not just oil, all energy and services)
 The intraday 2 min trend has given perfect signals, it's currently in line with price action.

The 5 min trend clearly turned leading negative, I don't recall exactly when we got in to Energy short, but I'm glad we have exposure and I'd like to add to it at the appropriate area, I'm doing my very best not to jump the gun and give in to emotion over logic and hard data.


The 15 min chart is an extremely important timeframe, we see a lot "in line" trends in green, a positive in white, I like charts like this because they are very dependable, when something goes wrong or right, like this leading negative divergence, I know 3C has tracked the asset well and something is really going on in underlying trade.
 
 Remember XLF's 4 hour chart, it's big trouble.

ERY (3x Bear Energy) ETF
 The 3 min chart suggests a pullback so I'd perfer to try to wait for that, although as a brand new position I wouldn't have any problems with phasing in to this position, maybe 1/3rd to half here and add the rest at better prices, this gives you coverage and allows you to add at better prices, but this phased in entry MUST be a part of your risk management before you enter the first shares, it cannot be dollar cost averaging which is used to get out of losing positions. Here we are expecting a pullback followed by strength and making a conscious and responsible decision understanding that ahead of time, one is responsible, one is "HOPE"
 The 15 min chart from near perfect confirmation to an obvious accumulation zone in a perfect price pattern for it, a "W" like price pattern.

ERY 30 min chart looks fantastic

Remember how negative the XLE 4 hour chart was, look at the ERY 2 hour, it not only confirms XLE , but gives you some idea of what we expect on the upside.

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