I'd say I've been very patient with this stage we are in and I haven't jumped in to many positions which I feel has been exactly the right strategy to take with the signals we have and thus far, price has proved us correct. Sometimes you have to move fast and get in there, sometimes you have to hold through a very emotionally challenging time and sometimes you need to know when it's time to just do your best to not be a busy body and I know that's difficult for a lot of us including me as I'm always looking for the opportunity, but just like with anything else, say surfing, you have to know which waves to paddle in to and which ones to let pass you; if you paddle for every wave by the time the beautiful one gets to you, you are too exhausted to paddle in to it and miss the best wave of the day.
FB came up today and this is one that is catching my attention. For newer members, I believe we were the first ones to enter FB long at a time when EVERYONE HATED FB after that disastrous first day of trade when the underwriters, GS and MS just lost control and FB had been trending down since. We saw something no one else saw, we jumped in when no one would even consider FB long (they called it "Face-Plant" at the time) and the next day, we were rewarded and for some time after that, easily being a double digit move for us. If I understood correctly, FB is now the darling of retail and we may be the only ones to break with the crowd again, just on the short side.
USO is also going to be very interesting, with the EIA Petroleum report tomorrow morning, that may give us some volatility that we need to establish a position there. As I have maintained, USO will be choppy and is has been, but it has fallen out of the range, I see two probabilities, both and up with a move higher for USO, one is just inside the choppy range and above resistance, the other would be a very big signal and move for a huge primary downtrend, that would require a breakout above the choppy range and a fail up there. If you recall the 7th chart down from the last post (NUGT) and the Crazy Ivan head fake move to the far left of the chart, this would be almost exactly the same. If you recall (or just go back and look), that head fake above the range that was primed from the head fake below the range previously, set up the largest, strongest and fastest moving decline on the chart, this is what we'd be looking at in USO so very interesting.
Let me say clearly, I am not sold on this cycle AT ALL and that's why I'm treating it cautiously. There are however some shorts that I think are worth a shot here and will be fine as core shorts even if the mini cycle fires to the upside, AMZN is one of those. GS is about 10 points away from being a near picture perfect set up, but in my view, I'd rather have 10 points of drawdown against my short which could be a 10% move, RATHER THAN MISS GS ,but this is thinking about the trade in terms of months, maybe a year. Still I'll always look for the best entry, I'm just trying to give you some of my perspective.
I think we can get GOOG between $900 to >$920 and I'd be so happy to find that set up, but I like it here as well. One good thing about being the small guy is you can be nimble, you can pick and chose your battles and if one doesn't come to you, there are 10 others waiting in line.
While I'll withhold judgement on AAPL longer term until the charts are more clear, I'd say for a swing trade, AAPL is a thread away from making some moves that would set up a nice swing position there.
XOM is only a few dollars away from a nice short set up and these are all core positions, not trades.
NFLX is driving me crazy, give me 10 points of upside there and I'm 85% certain we have an incredible opportunity.
In fact, the best reasoning I see for a market bounce is hundreds of individual stocks themselves and the vast majority have their own signals to bounce.
HOWEVER, LETS NOT FORGET THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, that's why I took the time to remind you in the post linked above, what the averages look like and they are no joke. Those aren;'t divergences off in the future, those are divergences we are in the middle of right now so now is a time to pick and chose your battles, to be patient and know when to paddle in or when to swing that bat.
I'll check the market over for anything I may have missed near the close and then it's watching futures and seeing what they have to say.
*For those of you who may be trading the Nikkei, so far the futures look like it's going to see a bounce.
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