I feel it's a little premature, but as an equity short I feel comfortable with TLT and with what I plan, November $108 puts, I feel comfortable as well.
Longer term resistance was broken today, not any exceptional follow through on the break, again if there's a rotation to risk on it will largely come out of "Risk off assets" like TLT furthermore TLT needs to move down to help the market move up via SPY Arbitrage. I still like TLT as a long, but would like to establish that around $100-$102.
TLT 10 min breaking above the intraday highs from yesterday along with longer term resistance.
The 15 min 30 year Treasury Futures look like a pullback is in the cards.
This is more of a trading position in my view so I think it needs some leverage, the only problem is any of the ETFs are very thin liquidity. I suppose TLT short would be worth 5-6% or you could look at TBT (2x short 20+ year treasuries) long as an alternative with some leverage.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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