Charts / Update

Hopefully the charts of ES will better expound on the multiple timeframe analysis in which we can have a bearish very short term, a slightly longer bullish move setting up that we may be buying in to as the longer chart actions shows price moving down, the shorter term charts are showing it getting ready to move up, however and here's where it gets tricky (As I say, Nothing is more deceptive than price), any upside move is destined to fail, we can still trade it and make money if we are sharp and fast, but the move itself is simply meant as a primer or a fuse of a larger bearish move to the downside which is represented on the longest/strongest charts.

This is what I was trying to explain in Thursday's video., how you can trade different timeframes long and short at the same time (long for a very fast move to the upside, but very short in duration so we use options), while that sets up head fakes and heavy distribution in core shorts which are being entered as well; it can be even more complicated than that, but lets stick with that.

ES/SPX Futures

 ES 1 min intraday is in line for the most part with the downtrend, there's a slight bump in price, but 3C is not following it, this is 1 reason I suspect a small intraday pullback and that is what I was talking about with regard to closing puts and whether waiting for a little downside here really makes sense or not, it's actually a petty decision.

The ES 5 min chart, despite the intraday, has already put in a positive divergence and this is what we saw last week forming so it's good for some upside, note that it really didn't pick up until the supply was available from all the longs who were long the FOMC who would now be at a loss as the knee jerk reaction failed.

YOU MAY RECALL I SAID YOU'D HAVE TO HIT THE BUY BUTTON IN 1 - 150TH OF A SECOND TO CATCH THE KNEE JERK MOVE, THERE WASN'T ANY REAL UPSIDE AFTER THAT SO ANY ONE WHO CHASED THE KNEE JERK MOVE WOULD HAVE HAD TO EITHER HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN BEFORE THE FOMC AND FEW PEOPLE EXPECTED THEM TO DO WHAT THEY DID SO I DOUBT MANY WERE LONG OR THEY WOULD HAVE HAD TO BUY AFTER THE KNEE JERK BECAUSE IT MOVED UP IN FRACTIONS OF A SECOND. THIS MEANS ANYONE CHASING THE MARKET MOMENTUM IS AT A TOTAL LOSS AS ALL OF THE FOMOC MOVE HAS FADED, THIS IS WHY WE DONT CHASE.

 ES 30 min is clearly negative, this chart migrated from 1 min to 30 min so it's a real, strong negative divergence. The 5 min chart may look good above for an upside move, the divergence may look strong, but a 5 min chart is scissors to the 30 min chart's rock, scissors always lose against rock in "Rock, Paper, Scissors".

Even though this 30 min chart it telling you a lot about the 5 min positive and the fact it doesn't have much behind it, there is a reason for its move and it is tactical for Wall St.

ES 60 min,  This chart was already negative in to the FOMC, smart money sold in to that spike, up and judging by the 3C divergences I put my interpretation of the strength of distribution at  different areas.
Down is the highest probability, long term trend, that's the one I want to prepare for the most.

SPY intraday 1 min was positive and now relative negative suggesting a small pullback or consolidation

The 2 min chart continues from last Friday and I'm thinking the yellow zone is the minimum upside target.

Again, note distribution in to the F_O_M_C and how ALL gains were retraced and this was a knee jerk reaction.

SPY 5 min though has no strength at all, so again there's very little hope for longs, but some money can be made hitch-hiking, it's probably better spent on core shorts, but we need the price move up first for those to be in best position.

 1 min chart improving today on the Q's, strongly suggests today's move below F_O_M_C support was as I said earlier, a head fake move.

 QQQ 2 min

Yet the 10 min shows any upside move from the charts above is really chasing crumbs, it can be worth it in the right area at the right time, but I'm trying to put things in perspective.