Wednesday, September 4, 2013

*Market Update

Incredibly volatile intraday action, if I had more time and could watch over positions more closely, I'd probably take a quick options or 3X leveraged trade, ultrashort term down like 3x leveraged IWM bear, SRTY or UVXY long.

However this I believe is still the same theory as last night and accumulation would pick up in to any move on the downside which would mean switching pretty quick back to long positions like the 3x long IWM URTY.

Here's a quick example with the IWM, but there's a lot more to it that I'll be positing.


 IWM 3 min intraday, this isn't important in the bigger picture of a bounce, but intraday, this is a very negative divergence that has migrated through the faster timeframes to a leading negative, My guess is this is the move that takes us to the lower end of the range talked about yesterday.


 At 15 min which is the bigger picture for the bounce, we have an even stronger leading positive divergence (most of that is trailing or catching up from yesterday's lows.

This suggests exactly the kind of bounce I've been talking about, it should turn bears bullish and ultimately create a bear trap before the big leg down.

I'd say using this 15 min IWM chart, the moves "should" look something like this, a run to the downside (red), I expected this to move to the lower end of the range and ultimately even break below it on a head fake move and then the large move to the upside at the green arrow.

That's a long way to go on the downside so I'm having second thoughts, but the fact intraday volatility is up as much as it is, those second thoughts are very minimal.

The market is always extreme at this point.

If I had time I'd likely play some very short day or less options, as it stands now, I'm only interested in going long at the bottom of the range and then ultimately selling short toward the end of a large bounce higher.

More charts coming, I have to break this up in to pieces.

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