So far the position is slightly in the green and we had a very strange day yesterday, really all week since Icahn announced his conversations with Cook looking for a bigger buy-back and the launch of Icahn's site, which in my view can only be used for one thing, a s a bully pulpit which is why I'm guessing PIMCO's Bill Gross had his own tweet telling Icahn what he should do with his time rather than harassing AAPL.
As far as that strange, very large print in after hours in AAPL last night, the best information I have so far reports that large transaction as a regular sale in after hours and not some late print or data distortion, The trade size was 1,150,000 shares, this is highly unusual and in after hours, there's more than meets the eye here.
As far as the AAPL Put, I do intend (so far based on what I know) to leave it open even though earnings are coming up October 28th after the close at 5 p.m.
5 min, transitional stage between intraday and institutional signal showing a clear transition between confirming an uptrend to a negative signal.
The more important 15 min chart showing accumulation at an island bottom and a very sharp distribution signal that has added an enormous amount of downside to 3C today alone.
The 30 min chart is in a transitional stage as a stronger chart, it does have a weaker relative negative divegrence, but that's it until/unless the 15 min chart migrates over, this is one of the reasons I chose options over an equity short, if I felt we had good evidence for a longer term or duration trade, I'd forgo the leverage and use an equity short.
Of course as shown yesterday the large "W" bottom we first suspected back in April to be the start of a base for a counter-trend rally after a -45% (8 month) loss, however as it took on a larger "W" base it was clear it would be able to support a longer move than a counter trend bounce and shortly thereafter we found out one of the culprits behind accumulation, Carl Icahn. Just in case you missed it yesterday, the lack of 10F evidence in Icahn's filing (suggesting it could not have been him accumulating in the start of the second quarter) for Q2 is not anything that would hold water as the SEC has a section on their website where a manager/fund can apply to have the accumulated shares withheld from the 10F if there's a reasonable belief that disclosing the position would endanger filling out the rest of the position, as mentioned yesterday The Oracle of Omaha used this same tactic in accumulating IBM.
The AAPL 60 min Trend Channel has shown a burst out of the channel, this is a change in character and these precede changes in trends, it forced the channel to widen as the ATR increased, however in the past when I've seen these, they typically have occurred in an uptrend right before a top pattern is formed as the last rally in to the top is usually the most volatile or impressive, clearly moving much more vertical than previous long term trend lines.
Unless I see something that suggests a leak or the charts fall apart to the point in which I would not take out a short at that same moment (This is one of the way I decide whether to keep a position or not, would I open the same position right now, if not then maybe it's time to close it)
, I will stay with AAPL
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