EOD Market Update

I want to cover currencies a bit as they are important and some of you are trading them...

These are different currency crosses (pairs) vs the SPX futures (ES) in purple.

 USD/JPY 5 min vs ES is not showing the kind of support ES would need right now to be considered "Supported"

The AUD/JPY is even worse, the AUD is particularly sensitive to China, but there are also some RBA issues the market is concerned over (Central Bank).

This is the AUD/JPY plunging hard, I'm not sure what if any Australian news there was that day, but it happens to be this Tuesday which would have been the second PBoC Open Market Operation in which they refused to inject liquidity in to the system.

 EUR/JPY seems to be the closest to a supportivecarry cross as you see above on a 5 min chart.

ES stumbled a bit around noon, I'm not sure exactly what time the Earthquake off of Fukushima hit.
 

Intraday there's a 3C negative divegrence in the EUR/JPY pair as well.

Looking at the Yen single currency future itself, there's a near term 3C positive divegrence which would send the EUR/JPY lower if the Yen moved higher off this divegrence, that would not be supportive of the market.

As far as Leading Indicators, as is usually the case on an op-ex Friday, they are rather tame, the only things of note where slightly better performance in short term VIX futures, sentiment indicators at last look were evenly split, one in line and the other falling out (negative).

Commodities acted better today, but no doubt that's because of gold's performance which looks to be at a transitional point as well as oil finding its footing, Yields were down, nothing too serious, at least not compared to the major trend for the run off the 10/9 lows in which Yields are sending a very negative signal for the overall/larger trend.

Credit was unremarkable except HY was looking better than I'd expect, perhaps there's some anticipation of a continuation of the last two days market behavior in to the new week, although this could change quickly in to the close as well. 

Since I didn't want to wait for breadth readings until AH, I checked my NASDAQ intraday breadth, I saw the intraday breadth looking pretty good, near highs, but slightly longer 15 min shows clear tapering off of the number of new highs within the larger trend for the 250 bar indicator, the  (in line with the assumption we see similar behavior Monday as yesterday and today in the NASDAQ and Tuesday we see negative price behavior). You could say short term is in line or slightly better as far as breadth, longer term with the main trend is showing the weakness expected at a turning point.

A different indicator, NASDAQ A/D Ratio shows both the 5 min and 30 min heading down, not particularly good for the Index overall, of course don't forget AAPL Monday as the heaviest weighted component in the NDX.

Within the trend on a 15 min chart, the percentage of stocks above a 50 bar moving average is falling off while the percentage below a 50-bar average are growing, again negative for the trend from 10/9.

TICK (NYSE intraday) has been unremarkable as expected on an op-ex Friday, the range has been very mellow mostly between +/- 600 with one spike to +1071. However late in the day as the pin effect wears off, the TICK is improving presumably for a late day ramp.

All in all, there's not a strong bias for upside and the established trend bias is strong for downside. It would not be surprising to see either a head fake or a simple noise day Monday and Tuesday would be questionable whether the PBOC injects, but there's clear evidence the market is growing more concerned with each missed injection and the overall trend up off the 10/9 lows is mature with a mature reversal process in place only lacking a false breakout or head fake move as they are present about 80% of the time just before a reversal in either direction.