Friday, October 4, 2013

Crude Oil /USO Follow Up

I mentioned that overnight action developing in 3C since last night's midnight futures report showed the probability of a pullback in gold, silver and oil, but oil looked to be the shortest of the 3.

We do have an open USO Call which could be closed right now at a very small single digit loss, but I am confident we have enough time on the contract (November) and I feel this is a small corrective move, so I'm ok with holding it.

Here are the charts showing what happened overnight in Crude Futures, these are Brent, not WTI.
 Crude 1 min futures overnight in to the open.

The 5 min futures diverged at the exact same area.

The 15 min futures are still holding a positive so it is not too concerning

And the distinct change in character in USO is the real story here. The price pattern alone suggested this would happen considering the way retail traders view the market and the way Wall St. takes advantage of them. In conclusion I don't see this as being much more serious than a gap fill and am not going to close any positions over it, I feel it would be a greater risk to not have the open exposure to crude (long) at this point, kind of like the AAPL (-45% drop) lesson.



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