EOD Market Update

The market looks to really be on the fence and can you blame it? It's very likely that the continuing resolution debate is being taken as the "tone to come" in dealing with the debt ceiling, that has to be done by Oct. 18th I believe and the last time we were in a nasty Debt Ceiling fight, the market fell nearly 20% late August of 2011 in to September.

However for our purposes, this could all work out fine if for instance the market is able to pop higher over the next week or so and then falls apart in to the Debt ceiling, it's almost exactly what the IWM 10 & 15 min charts are suggesting. Last night in the video I said I could sum up the market with those two charts, the near term price action and what immediately follows, it's exactly what would benefit us the most so for now the question is simply whether the market can make the next several days count on the upside with an IWM breakout?


Leading Indicators aren't that helpful today, they seem to be on the fence as well, only HIO (sentiment) is clearly positive, VIX futures also look like underlying trade is lagging suggesting there's not a huge rush to buy protection from downside right away.

 Closer to home, the charts this afternoon...

 This 15 min SPY chart, if it can hold, answers the short term question about where the IWM/market goes.

Intraday the earlier negative gained a little strength

As did the 3 min

And you can see it reflected in the TICK data as well.

TLT just hit one of my intraday upside targets so I'm happy to have closed the puts near the L.O.D. today, but I'll be looking for the next entry in TLT short for a near term trade.

Still, the two charts that sum it all up remain the IWM 10-15 min.

 We are pretty much there, above resistance is where the core trades are, the easier trades to take, the longer trending trade, we are so close I can't see how we miss.

This is the 15 min chart and would be what comes next, once the core shorts are added, this should be the market response, it fits almost perfectly with the debt ceiling.

Short term longs right now are much more difficult than long term shorts above resistance will be, trust me.