Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Gold / Silver & GDX

Yesterday I put up at least 2 posts dealing with gold and silver, this quote was from one around 10 a.m. yesterday morning...

"Overnight I couldn't get a sense of gold, the charts were foggy for futures there, Silver and Gold futures had different divergences, but both were very close to what I'd call the middle in this case, that's not in line, it's really the worst reading in 3C, the one that has no value, it doesn't tell you much one way or the other "

In another one I said I wasn't even going to put up gold/silver charts because there was no edge in them and I didn't want people looking at them and seeing things like we see animals in the clouds.

While silver has a little improvement, I still wouldn't trade it, gold I still wouldn't post.
 This is the 30 min Silver Futures chart, there's improvement, especially on today's move. I wouldn't enter a position, but it does suggest there's a positive bias or accumulation of silver here.

Before today SLV's chart was just gibberish,  this is why I didn't want to post it, it had no value, but something interesting is starting today.

This may simply be a counter reaction to the market divergences or the start of something that may lead to a trade.

SLV 10 min is largely in line, the pops out of the trend are all on leading negative divergences and all fail. There's a head fake move that "should" have (according to Technical Analysis) made a next leg lower, instead it trapped shorts and popped higher, that was about the last good information.

 GLD 5 min shows good information in to the F_O_M_C, after that, gibberish and still not much to go on.

GDX however is interesting in that a bear-flag and bull-flag both head faked technical traders as we expect and twice in a row. The recent activity from last Friday forward continues to look interesting, I continue to hold the GDX/NUGT positions.

GDX 5 min positive trend last week, but much like the broad market and then a failure below what could be a bearish descending triangle, it seems to have been accumulated.

This 15 min chart shows a bearish bear pennant (like a bear flag) and the break technical traders would expect below the pennant, but 3C remains at a leading positive divegrence, this does seem like a larger head fake than the last two failed flags and I suspect this will be a third failed flag/pennant which is the biggest of them all so a reversal here should come with a pretty hefty short squeeze so I'm sticking with GDX/NUGT longs, I might consider adding if the signals are irrefutable, I'm staying away from gold and silver for the time being.

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