Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Financials, XLF, FAS, FAZ

I posted Still Love Financials Short on Monday.

I'm still holding a trading position of FAZ long (3x short Financials) which is actually still at a gain, this is why I'm a little myopic about entries, sometimes they make all the difference.

For now I'm going to leave this position alone and not add to it, although I still do like it. As I said Monday in the post linked above, my triggers for adding to FAZ or opening XLF puts would be...

"If we were to get a move in the market with XLF >$21 and FAZ <$25, I'd be very interested in either XLF short or XLF puts depending on how it happened and/or FAZ long, my preference is really FAZ long as it has some leverage, but it's the kind of position that doesn't need as much maintenance as a put and I feel there's enough duration or profit potential to make it worthwhile."

Although after looking at the FAZ charts, I'm really tempted to add, but I have thresholds for a reason, especially if I'm going to be looking at adding to a position that I had not initially considered in risk management, in this case it would be averaging up, not down as the FAZ position is green, but I'll hold on.

You however may find the charts interesting.
 It's really the longer charts that carry the high probabilities, it's the short and or short, intermediate and long term all coming together that provide the timing cue.

In this case a 1 min negative on the open sending FAZ lower with a much larger intraday positive building in to the pullback.

 The 3 min intraday is very strong and is confirmation that the divegrence is migrating through longer timeframes which means it's improving and getting stronger.

 The 5 min chart is a good all around  chart, you see the previous leading positive and today's as mentioned earlier before is even in better leading positive position which is what I'd expect to see in a healthy situation.

About that longer term, this is the 60 min, that's a fairly large leading positive in a fairly flat zone (where we often see accumulation in this case  or distribution when they are proceeding uptrends and flat).

Bottom line, I still love Financials short and specifically FAZ (long) as a longer term trading position.

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