I would prefer to either see GLD ( gold) get on with a pullback/gap fill or really tell us something is wrong as it is a QE asset rather than sit idly and chew up theta. Gold typically rises with QE, but more importantly it rises with inflation expectations. Falling gold has typically been associated with QE-OFF / TAPER-ON sentiment among market participants so it's something to pay attention to.
Yesterday I decided to hold GLD and GDX December calls as it looked like the most probable outcome was for a filling of yesterday's gap up and a continuation higher, it took most of the day to get there so I'll be watching equally as close today, I'd rather take a small loss now than a large one later
if that's what the charts are pointing to as the highest probability or a reasonable probability.
Right now, GLD looks like this...
Yesterday it seemed GLD got a late day temporary reprieve as the 5 min chart led GLD higher with a positive divegrence in the afternoon.
Since then however, this 1 min chart shows the move from yesterday afternoon and a small negative divegrence this morning that "seems" to be building.
This is the troublesome 3 min chart from yesterday, it still looks bad so if the 5 min divergence which was rather small and already fulfilled in price movement continues to go more negative, once again it will be a decision as to whether it looks like a shallow gap fill pullback in which case I'd be ok with holding the December GLD calls or if it looks more serious for a deeper base building pullback which would be nice for GLD's longer term trend, but would chew up calls.
I'll check on GDX as well, but they're usually not too different and I'd think gold would likely lead GDX at this point.
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