MCP Update - Core Long Position

MCP was last updated Monday of this week, MCP Long Position Update. After doing what was expected (a shake out <$4.70), I added to the core long position (as it was intended to be a phased in entry) and the average price for the position is now at $4.77 which is excellent for the long term core position.

Here's what we have now... It looks like the head-fake moves (Just a massive stop-clearing effort) are all in, there's no utility in moving much lower because there aren't likely to be any "nests" of stops left as the $4.70 area I was looking for was the 2013 intraday low. So we have a position now at an excellent entry point, very high probability, very low risk.

 This was the long term Ascending Triangle base, when triangles are this big, they are not consolidation/continuation patterns, they function as tops and bottoms. 

Then GS came out with a downgrade...
 MCP was sent lower, volume swelled which created supply, who do you think might have been absorbing that supply on the cheap because someone is on the other side of the trade? My guess is Goldman Sachs for a long term position, not a bounce play.

In yellow are the 3 stop areas I was looking for to be cleared, check the post linked above and the links to former posts, we identified all of these levels in advance including the last one of $4.70, the 2013 intraday low. The price pattern is now a large rectangle which is fine.

 Note the Bollinger Bands squeezing indicating a highly directional move is likely very soon. My custom DeMark Inspired Buy/Sell Indicator has flashed 3 buy signals in this area of stop runs, with the BB squeeze, I'd say on that alone we have a 75% chance of an upside breakout. Add the 3C signals and I think this is a home run.

 This is the large triangle area with distribution sending prices down to lower levels where they were accumulated, the $6.25-$6.50 level is the first and with 3C, the first area of accumulation is almost always surpassed by the reversal move.

Then after the GS downgrade, the accumulation went stronger to Leading positive divergences, again there was plenty of supply so seeing stronger signals makes sense as more supply would be accumulated.

 The 30 min chart shows the exact same accumulation areas in what I'd easily term a STAGE 1 BASE (accumulation).

 Here's the 5 min chart's leading positive divegrence as price breaks down from the ascending triangle on the GS downgrade and 3C leads as volume increases on the break and at least 3 stop runs.

 This is the more recent action around the $4.70 level, this is an important area for the initial reversal .  Note the increasing ROC in the leading positive divegrence.

 I'd say this is the reversal process and it looks to be mature, more than half done and the second half is much shorter.

I use a moving average to show the same rounding bottom.

I figured based on a "Measured Move", MCP likely has a target of at least ($6.50 based on 3C accumulation alone) $11.25 just based on the base's measured move.