Friday, November 8, 2013

PCLN Core Short Update

I' don't think I've had so many people interested in shorting a stock before, I'm not sure why? Maybe revenge trading from previous losses, maybe the "Bigger they are, the harder they fall", maybe it's just seen as a momentum monkey's stock and has no right to be trading at these levels or people don't like William Shatner, in any case, here's the update.

I have a partial core short position started with room to add, I won't be doing that today because I have more important things to do, but above $1100 and I'd be really tempted, that's not a forecast or prediction, just an area that I'd be interested in.


 PCLN Daily chart, the volume today is interesting especially because it doesn't look like the "typical" churning candlestick. Yesterday's volume was up on a break of support levels.


 A 60 min look, from left to right, the support level, a hammer with increased volume, then a break triggering stops and shorts and then a gap up after last night's 3C earnings which you saw, they were strange.

 I wanted to check this out well because there's just so much interest so I used the Trend Version of 3C, it reduced noise, but details with that, but gives a better clean trend and that;s clearly leading negative to new lows.

 10 min which is much more significant than the normal 3C 10 min because of the trend version, also leading negative at a new low.

 15 min negative at a shakeout candle right out of the triangle (the first 15 m candle) and in to every high since.

60 min in line, but getting funny around the yellow arrows, then leading negative, it looks like the back of the trend was broken there, again negatives in to any higher prices.

 If you really wanted to play this safe or if maybe you entered a partial position here and then the rest on confirmation, the Trend Channel would give a solid sell/short signal around $990, which makes sense as I'd bet most stops and shorts are right at $1000. This could mive a little higher (the Channel/stop), not much.

3C intraday looks like a lot of the market

3 min as well


5 min leading negative

 15 min

I've shown a real clear 30/60 min, but I figured I'd mix it up and show this 4 hour which is a really strong trend and it is leading negative so distribution has been taking place.

I also marked $1100 in yellow, you can probably see why I'd be interested in that level, but I have no evidence that we go there beyond market behavior, but this isn't a slam dunk as far as behavior goes either.

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