What is a "Mini Cycle"

Since using that term to describe what I expected today I've had a lot of emails about "What does a mini-cycle look like?". Amazingly despite the NFP, we are getting exactly that and that is not surprising because even though they were consistently weak, they were consistent signals among many assets and indicators as mentioned already.

This is one email reply that I'm basically copy and pasting to try to explain this term "Mini cycle" a little more clearly...

"A mini bounce or cycle is obviously subjective, but I would consider the 10/9 lows and bounce from there to be a full cycle, a mini cycle might look something like a falling 3 methods candlestick pattern, maybe even shorter.

There's a VERY good chance, because the signals were so consistent, but also so consistently weak that it is just a bounce to get prices up to an area where the can effect a Max Pain Options Expiration as we have those every Friday now with so many weekly options, not just the 3rd Friday of the month.

So in effect, we may have dropped too far yesterday from "max pain" which is the level where they are causing the most number of contracts or rather the highest dollar number of contracts, to expire worthless so those who write them, the professionals,  can keep all the premium rather than lose it or have to deliver. So a mini cycle could also just be a 1-day event meant to get prices to the Max Pain pin level where the most amount of contracts in dollar value will expire worthless.

Obviously we'll be able to tell more as the day goes on, an op-ex Friday usually is pretty range-bound around whatever the max pain pin is, which shifts as contracts are closed, but usually around 2-3 p.m. most contracts are closed and the market starts to act whichever way it wants in to the close.

I've found that the price action during this time has little relevance on the next week's open, but the 3C signals often pick up the next trading day right where they left off on Friday or the day before."