Tuesday, November 19, 2013

PCLN Update #2

Earlier today, like AAPL I showed the weakness in PCLN (intermediate to longer term as in Swing to Core short position) and how we could use very short term price strength to short in to as we were looking for a breakout above a tight intraday range in PCLN yesterday before the market dumped before the Head fake could get underway with an intraday move above $1145.

This afternoon I mentioned PCLN along with AAPL as a VERTY speculative, short duration Call (option) position.
 This is one of the longer term (60 min) negatives in PCLN.

As far as the 10/9 cycle and the top/range, here's the clear distribution in the area .

I like the idea of adding to the PCLN core short on a bounce, however, very short term PC:LN looks like it's a decent short duration long, so short it likely needs leverage to make it worthwhile and that makes it very speculative.
 
 There's the negative in the flat range and then yesterday's positive which made me think a head fake move above the range (>$4145) was very likely, but the market took the wind out of its sails before PCLN could get this move off the ground.

Today the 1 min intraday positive continued.

We also have migration of the positive divegrence as this 3 min chart shows

 Even the 5 min chart saw intraday migration, it's speculative, but I think the probabilities are there based on the charts, who knows what Bernie says, but we can only make decisions with the information we have at the time, anything else is either gambling or fortune telling.

A Trend Channel 2-day or 3-day (above) stop could be used as a way to know when the Trend is irretrievably broken, those levels are the tighter 2-day at <$1053 or the wider 3-day at <$1053.

Note ATR has become very wild (12 day) running from mid-teens to over $60, this kind of volatility is typically seen at the end of the trend.

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