However, examining the facts, the Yen dump (I still haven't heard any news for it just like last week's) has not produced the move that last week's did. Last night I even wondered if it would hold up overnight whereas last week's jacked up futures in the low volume overnight session on a manipulation that was so obvious it was an embarrassment to call these free markets.
In any case, last night's didn't work.
I'm looking at CONTEXT and I can see it's nearly flat, there's no SPY Arbitrage in effect.
I see all of the major averages are down to some degree or another, but transports (where there are high beta names) are ripping, even without that old Dow Theory confirmation, it seems they are ripping for 1 reason, I think it's the same reason the R3K MSI (Most Shorted Index) appears to be trying to effect a squeeze while the R3K is also in the red.
The Carry trades aren't working, The EUR/JPY is losing momentum and looks like it could stall (you've seen it carry the market just in last night's post). The USD/JPY carry lost momentum and the AUD/JPY has been down since about 3:30 a.m.
There seems to be some attempt to push the VIX lower, but unlike yesterday when VXX (Short Term VIX Futures) were unremarkable, today they are showing the positives that they didn't yesterday. The actual VIX Futures are doing the same.
Meanwhile the QE sensitive assets like Treasuries are turning down again after a brief bump starting around 5 a.m., but the trend since Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls has been down, QE-OFF or Taper On.
The $USD is choppy and difficult to get a grasp on, overnight during the ASian session it was much more clear and up (QE Off) and now this a.m. Gold is down as well (I'm hoping this move gets faded as a HF, but the fact it is down as well is also QE Off/Taper On.
It really seems like the market is struggling as I have said the last several weeks, but with increasing frequency the last several days, "Organic demand just doesn't seem to be there" and this, even with some positive indications in short term leading Indicators. Sometimes though the larger picture is so ugly, the short term gets run over, I call that the "AAPL Example" because I covered an AAPL short at an excellent entry on some short term divergences and then Loeb's Third Point comes out and AAPL is missing from the top 5 holdings, result= AAPL down 45% in 8 months.
There also appears (as I showed you last night) to be an effort underway to get credit to back the market, there were positives starting late yesterday which I showed in last night's daily wrap, I'm watching, but I don't know if they can get those moving.
On a different note, TLT is VERY close to the range I was looking for to consider re-opening the TLT core long position which was closed just before TLT declined (a bit ago), but I have seen things in the 20+ year Treasuries that I'm not seeing in the benchmark 10 year and $100-$102 was my TLT target, we are close so I'll be looking at that carefully as a long term trend trade (long).
However, for right now, there's this feeling of "Blood in the water", desperation to get some asset to push the market.
In the meantime, the Falling 3 Methods candlestick formation I mentioned in trend expectations are now on the 4th day (typically or textbook it is a 4-day pattern and bearish). The averages that are within the possibility of putting in this formation include: Russell 2000, Russell 3000 & NASDAQ 100. The others aren't far from it.
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